Switchgrass - reputed to be an energy positive and carbon negative biofuel

The biofuel boom has changed the game for agricultural commodities

The Terrapin Biofuels Finance and Investment World conference held in London in November of 2006 provided an excellent forum to come to grips with how the biofuels value chain is shaping up.

This article seeks to extract some of the insights delivered at the conference, and all figures are based on input from the various presenters, the comments and interpretations thereof are however the authors. Of course none of these figures, particularly the projections can be cast in stone, but it certainly offers some ideas of where the biofuels market is heading and where it will end up.

Product Definition and Subsidies

There appears to different but highly interrelated schools of thought on viable business models. Predominantly, this is driven by a first versus developing world perspective of investors and companies. At the root of these schools of thought, lies the issue of product definition.

In the post-industrial world, energy security and green energy are strong drivers, and government policies typically by way of incentives are the main drivers to this focus. This leads to a distinguishable product definition. If you define renewable fuel as “biofuel,” then ultimately one of the main customers is a government. This is because you are dependent on government subsidies as a material revenue stream to the biofuel business you engage in, whichever component(s) of the value chain you participate in. If you define your product as fuel, then your main customer is the end consumer of the fuel. The varying product definitions lead to different approaches and different points of participation in the value chain. I believe it is for this reason that we see a significant growth in both bioethanol and biodiesel refining capacity internationally and in particular in the first (post industrial, developed) world.

First World refineries are often driven by factors such as logistics and location, investment and plant cost, trying to optimize the refining capacity and quality, and feedstock supplies.

EXTENT OF BIOFUEL SUBSIDIES

- European subsidies are 3 times higher than US

- Export tariffs need to be lifted in Europe to assist meeting target consumptions of 2010 and 2020

- In 2020 with current targets, European biofuel subsidies might represent 23 times the European transport credits or 6 times those to research; Subsidies could represent 50% of agricultural budget or 20% of total EU budget.

- Put another way, subsidies might represent 70% of farmer’s revenue

TERMS OF BIOFUEL SUBSIDIES

A peculiar issue regarding investment in a subsidized market is that different investment return time horizons are applicable to various participants in the subsidized environment

- Farmers need a steady annual income

- Governments typically commit to a 3 to 5 year subsidy structure

- Investors require returns over a 5 to 7 year time horizon

- Industry requires 10 years plus period to write off assets

There is thus a mismatch between the time horizon requirements from the various participants and particularly from and investment perspective, which mainly drives the process, thus does cause uncertainty in terms of cash flow as a main revenue stream is subsidy income and thus changes therein will impact on investment.

ACTUAL MARKET COSTS FOR ETHANOL & BIODIESEL

From a numerical perspective it is interesting to note some of the following figures put forward:

- On a strict energy-equivalent basis ethanol is competitive without subsidies at approximately US$ 60 per barrel in the US, US$ 35 per barrel in Brazil, and US$ 115 in Europe

- The EU Commission estimates that biodiesel is competitive without subsidies at US$ 65 per barrel

THE LIMITATIONS TO SUBSIDIES

In general, subsidies have a curious nature. On the one hand they certainly can play a key role in society. So for example, public works spending during recessions can stimulate economies and literally pull them out of such dire periods. In the case of biofuels, subsidies can certainly pave the way for much quicker industry development. However, what is important to note is that long term subsidies are simply not sustainable and place a direct drain on the economy. To use a very simple example, if you walk up to someone in the street and ask him/her to give you US$ 100 because you can’t sell your baked cookies to Wal-Mart without this assistance, you certainly have a very slim chance of getting the money. If however you walked into government offices and asked for the same amount (and with a bit of lobbying) you’d have a rather high chance of success for getting the money. However, the government ultimately collects its monies from the citizens of the country, so in the end it is the same as having asked someone on the street for the 100 US$ in the first place!

Sustained subsidies lead to frictions such as experienced through the World Trade Organization regarding agriculture. So, although the involvement of government through subsidies plays a key role in many countries for the development of biofuels, it is vital to ensure that there is a much clearer long term policy that explicitly articulates long term involvement of government in the industry and what the exit plan is once the industry is established. If the plan is simply to continue subsidizing the industry then all that is happening is that you as the tax-payer will be burdened, indirectly making your fuel more expensive versus the price at the fuel pump.

Product Definition - A Change?

A topic that briefly surfaced was that of co-products. Of course when you import crude oil, or ethanol there is not much scope for the co-production as you are utilizing a processed product and thus earlier in the value chain the co- or by-products have hopefully been extracted and utilized. However from the total biofuel value chain perspective, these co-products can a) play a significant revenue enhancing role to the value chain and the cost of the product, and b) the co-products need to be dealt with as efficiently as possible because if you increase the value of the co-product you are decreasing your production cost per acre/hectare and thus you should be able to sell your primary product (fuel) at a lower price.

To do this it is necessary to redefine your product or business model (assuming you have some form of participative control of the value chain). So, for example, sugar co-products can produce electricity and thus you can move to a “bioenergy” product definition. Admittedly, a detriment to such a product definition has always been that the technology required to efficiently process the co-products have been lacking. Having said this, significant technological advances have been made over the past few years. From an energy perspective particularly in terms of cellulosic biomass, Combined Heat and Power (CHP) technology and gasification technology (both bio and thermal) as well as pyrolysis which has been around for some time. Therefore, if you expand your product definition to include some of these technologies in your processing of your harvest the ultimate IRR in the value chain can significantly improve. Being only a refiner of biofuel limits your ability to benefit in these co-product revenue stream enhancements.

Biofuel from prairie grass is reputed to be “carbon negative,” unlike many biofuels.

Feedstocks and Food Security

Some very pertinent figures where raised during the conference, for example:

- The US Biodiesel industry is expanding based on subsidies of US$1 per gallon or US$ 300 per ton;

- EU subsidies of US$ 450 allow Rapeseed to breakeven at per US$ 300 per ton;

- By 2007 world biodiesel consumption is expected to outstrip soybean production;

- By 2007 US corn for ethanol consumption will again outstrip US corn exports;

- Reflecting on world demand for vegetables oils and impact of biodiesel, Soft Seed oils (Sunflower and Rapeseed) production which usually responds to price and demand factors with a year to two years time lag, and are seen as the balancers for vegetable oil prices are currently producing at record highs. It follows that Soft Seed demand will significantly increase in the next few years due to increased demand caused by greater biodiesel refining and refineries;

- Similarly with US corn, there is a significant gap between USDA projections for corn supply vs. the amount of corn required for ethanol production (indicatively requiring a further 15 million acres to be planted by 2010 to negate this gap);

- Margin compression in biodiesel of feedstock cost versus net margin - in Germany margins are dramatically decreasing. Ethanol margin also compressing but not as significantly as biodiesel yet&

- The global grain market reserves have fallen from 120 days in 2000 to an estimated reserve of only 40 days by 2008, with corn reserves projected at falling to even lower levels of 20 days reserves.

In short it therefore seems that due to government subsidies aimed it bolstering refining capacity, a huge number of biofuel refineries have gone up in the last few years, this in turn has caused (and will continue to cause) a significant increase in demand for feedstock supplies. Currently a high percentage of the feedstocks are food based, and therefore there is now a new competing market for the feedstocks, which will price place pressures on feedstocks, more so, as the amount of land under cultivation for feedstocks is not keeping up with the demand.

Biofuel can spell disaster to forests and yet pose a challenge to deserts - where to plant is crucial.

So what then does the Developing World have to say about this?

If we take a step back and look at world energy demand, most projections seem to indicate that demand will double by 2030, the main growth driver being from the large emerging economies. But, the Developing world and in particular that part of the world between the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn also has the most farmland available and generally the best climates to produce economically viable high yield biofuels (for example Brazil’s ethanol production or South East Asia’s Palm Oil production) . If that is the case, how are they viewing this surge in demand?

First, the emerging markets face significant pollution pressures. China, for example, is estimated to lose 8 to 12% of Gross Domestic Product due to pollution. The main drivers thereto are acid rain, diseases, disaster relief costs, and agricultural costs (loss of crops due to pollution, etc). Second, because the developing countries are the drivers for increased energy demand, energy security certainly places a key role for their government’s strategies. It can actually be argued that due to sub-optimal energy production and delivery in these countries, economic development can in some cases be retarded. Bearing these two factors in mind, simply out of an economic perspective it is difficult to see any clear motivation for a developing country to export biofuel or the raw products until its own energy demands are catered for as far as possible by renewable energy. This is a matter of concern for all the refineries going up in the first world, in as they look to lock in reliable supplies of feedstock.

And Corporate Governance? How does that fit into the picture?

Without going into too much detail on the topic, a simplistic model for some aspects of corporate governance is the Triple Bottom Line perspective “People, Planet, Profits” (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triple_bottom_line) - although there are arguments that the full concept is somewhat libertarian and idealistic, it does not detract from the fact that companies are responsible to all stakeholders (including society and the environment) in their business activities. Further, due to various legislations in Europe, UK, and the US companies are increasingly becoming responsible for their actions both locally and abroad. What relevance does this hold for biofuel projects? Whether you own your own crops, broker the commodities (crude vegetable oil or ethanol), or refine and produce the end biofuel, you are responsible to make sure that the crop and/or plantation is done in a socially and environmentally acceptable manner. This means that you cannot for example buy Crude Palm Oil from a plantation in a developing country where 100,000 hectares of rainforest has been burnt down to produce the crop. Neither can you buy such a product where the social impact of the crop or plantation has been to society’s detriment. Such actions will impede the success of your enterprise even if you are simply refining the commodity as you are ultimately contributing to destructive practices and will surely at some point face stakeholder and/or legal action.

Summary

Biofuel is one of the most global industries that mankind has undertaken, it affects everybody from the small-scale farmer in the developing world, to the corporation in the first world, to fuel consumers in every country. Admittedly Biofuel’s impact in statistical terms is still relatively small, but with the increase in biofuel production this impact will increase. The value chain is vast and stretches from a seedling to a consumer driving his car. It is a global matter and a strong case can be made for a more international involvement as the different points are affected at different times in the value chain as this industry develops. Even if your business model is only refining fuel, your business exposure is also agricultural and subsequent commodities.

Investors therefore need to accept that they will face both agricultural risks as well as refining and market risks - not that these cannot be managed; it is just that they will be exposed to them. Biofuels is not just a “green” industry with “green” money backing it, the market dictates the reality and viability of any venture and when the industry moves to market economics it certainly will provide a different value chain in the long run.

As a closing comment, someone at the conference jokingly said that in the next few years there should be a rather good business in brokering second-hand refineries if the excess production of capacity continues. In reality, this will probably not be the case, but a relook at the value chain and impact all the various parties are having on it will certainly change the biofuel industry of tomorrow.

About the Author: Louis Strydom is an expert in new venture creation and project finance with wide experience on projects in the developing world. One of Louis’ main projects for the last year has been conducting a pre-feasibility study and promotion of a 230,000 acre site for a Jatropha plantation and biodiesel refinery in Kenya. Previously he was Senior Vice President of Project Finance at Decillion - a company listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Other positions included Senior Economist managing the Credit Policy and Risk Management division of the Export Credit Insurance Corporation of South Africa. Prior to that he was a Director with Triumvirate responsible for Marketing and Consulting on Crisis Management. Louis also has extensive experience in short term insurance with American Insurance Group on fire/casualty risks, niche products and political risks in Africa, Europe, the Middle East, UK and USA.

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Al Gore’s book on “The planetary emergency of global warming and what can be done about it,” purports to be a non-partisan, non-ideological exposition of climate science and moral common sense. In reality, An Inconvenient Truth is a colorfully illustrated lawyer’s brief for global warming alarmism and energy rationing.

It is a J’Accuse hurled at fossil fuel energy-based civilization, especially the United States, and above all the Bush Administration and its purported allies in the U.S. oil and auto industries.

We do not expect lawyers to argue both for and against their clients, nor do we expect “balance” from political party leaders. However, although Gore reminds us - in the film version of An Inconvenient Truth - that he “used to be the next President of the United States,” and concludes both the book and the movie with a call for “political action,” he presents AIT as the work of a long-time student of climate science, a product of meditation on “what matters.” He asks his audience to expect more from him than the mere cleverness that can sway juries or win elections.

What we get instead is sophistry. In AIT, the only facts and studies considered are those convenient to Gore’s scare-them-green agenda - and in many instances, Gore distorts the evidence he presents.

Nearly every significant statement Gore makes regarding climate science and climate policy is either one sided, misleading, exaggerated, speculative, or just plain wrong. The present OnPoint summarizes my findings. An Inconvenient Truth does the following:

More Cows

ONE-SIDED

Never acknowledges the indispensable role of fossil fuels in alleviating hunger and poverty, extending human life spans, and democratizing consumer goods, literacy, leisure, and personal mobility.

Never acknowledges the environmental, health, and economic benefits of climatic
warmth and the ongoing rise in the air’s carbon dioxide (CO2) content.

Never acknowledges the major role of natural variability in shrinking the snows of Kilimanjaro and other mountain glaciers.

Never mentions the 1976 regime shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a natural ocean cycle, which is a major cause of recent climate change in Alaska.

Presents a graph tracking CO2 levels and global temperatures during the past 650,000 years, but never mentions the most significant point: Global temperatures were warmer than the present during each of the past four interglacial periods, even though CO2 levels were lower.

Never confronts a key implication of its assumption that climate is highly sensitive to CO2 emissions - that absent said emissions, global climate would be rapidly deteriorating into another ice age.

Neglects to mention that, due to the growth of urban heat islands, U.S. cities and towns will continually break temperature records, with or without help from global warming.

Neglects to mention that global warming could reduce the severity of winter storms - also called frontal storms because their energy comes from colliding air masses (fronts) - by decreasing the temperature differential between colliding air masses.

Highlights London’s construction of the Thames River flood barrier as evidence of global warming-induced sea-level rise, but does not mention that London is sinking two to six times faster than global sea levels are rising.

Ignores the large role of natural variability in Arctic climate, never mentioning either that Arctic temperatures during the 1930s equaled or exceeded those of the late 20th century, or that the Arctic during the early- to mid-Holocene was significantly warmer than it is today.

Cites a study that found that the number of recorded wildfires in North America has increased in recent decades, but not the same study’s finding that the total area burned decreased by 90 percent since the 1930s.

Fosters the impression that global warming can only be good for bad things
(algae, ticks) and bad for good things (polar bears, migratory birds) - depicting nature as a morality play.

Cites a study by Isabella Velicogna and John Wahr, of the University of Colorado, that found an overall loss in Antarctic ice mass during 2002-2005, but ignores a study by University of Missouri professor Curt Davis and colleagues that found an overall ice mass gain during 1992-2003. Three years worth of data is too short to tell anything about a trend in a system as vast and complex as Antarctica.

Cites a recent study by John Turner of the British Antarctic Survey that found a 0.5° Celsius (C) to 0.7°C per decade wintertime warming trend in the mid-troposphere above Antarctica, as measured by weather balloons, but fails to mention that the same study found much less warming - about 0.15°C per decade - at the Antarctic surface, or that NASA satellites, which also measure troposphere temperatures, show an Antarctic cooling trend of 0.12°C per decade since November 1978.

Misanthropically sees “success” not in the fossil fuel energy-based civilization that has enabled mankind to increase its numbers more than six-fold since the dawn of the industrial revolution, but in the recent reduction of global population growth rates.

Compares Haiti - which suffers from deforestation - unfavorably with neighboring Dominican Republic - which enjoys lush forest cover - to illustrate the impact of politics on the environment, but ignores another key implication of the comparison: Poverty is the environment’s number one enemy.

Notes that “much forest destruction” and “almost 30%” of annual CO2 emissions come from “the burning of brushland for subsistence agriculture and wood fires used for cooking,” but never considers whether fossil fuel energy restrictions would set back developing countries both economically and environmentally, by leading to more such burning.

Neglects to mention the circumstances that make it reasonable rather than blameworthy for America to be the biggest CO2 emitter: the world’s largest economy, high per capita incomes, abundant energy resources, markets integrated across continental distances, and the world’s most mobile population.

Impugns the motives of so-called global warming skeptics but never acknowledges the special-interest motivations of those whose research grants, direct-mail income, industrial policy privileges, regulatory power, prosecutorial plunder, or political careers depend on keeping the public in a state of fear about global warming.

Castigates former White House official Phil Cooney for editing U.S. government climate change policy documents, without ever considering the scientific merit of Cooney’s decisions to delete certain passages as “speculative.”

Waxes enthusiastic about cellulosic ethanol, a product with no commercial application despite 30 years of government-funded research, and neglects to mention that corn-based ethanol, a product in commercial use for a century, is still more costly than regular gasoline despite oil prices exceeding $70 a barrel.

Misrepresents the major auto companies’ position in their lawsuit to overturn California’s CO2 emissions law by neglecting to mention that CO2 standards are de facto fuel economy standards and that federal law prohibits states from regulating fuel economy.

Blames Detroit’s financial troubles on the Big Three’s high-volume production of sport utility vehicles, even though U.S. automakers probably would not exist today had they been “ahead of their time” and pushed hybrids during the 1990s, contrary to consumer demand. AIT says nothing about the biggest cause of Detroit’s falling capitalization - unaffordable payments for employee benefit packages negotiated decades ago.

Touts Denmark’s wind farms without mentioning any of the well-known drawbacks of wind power: cost, intermittency, avian mortality, site depletion, and scenic degradation.

Never addresses the obvious criticism that the Kyoto Protocol is all pain for no gain and that any policies far-reaching enough to noticeably slow warming would be a “cure” worse than the alleged disease.

Claims a study by Robert Socolow and Stephen Pacala of Princeton University shows that “affordable” technologies could reduce U.S. carbon emissions below 1970 levels even though the authors specifically note that their study does not estimate costs. AIT also neglects to mention that Socolow and Pacala’s study is a response to a 2002 study by Martin Hoffert of New York University and 17 other energy experts who concluded that, “CO2 is a combustion product vital to how civilization is powered; it cannot be regulated away.”

Coal

MISLEADING

Implies that a two-page photograph of Perito Moreno Glacier in Argentina shows that the glacier is melting away, even though the glacier’s terminal boundary has not changed in 90 years.

Implies that, during the past 650,000 years, changes in carbon dioxide levels preceded and largely caused changes in global temperature, whereas the causality mostly runs the other way, with CO2 changes trailing global temperature changes by hundreds to thousands of years.

Belittles as ideologically motivated the painstaking and now widely-accepted methodological critiques by Ross McKitrick of the University of Guelph in Ontario and Steve McIntyre of the Hockey Stick reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere climate history.

Cites increases in insurance payments to victims of hurricanes, floods, drought, tornadoes, wildfires, and other natural disasters as evidence of a global warming-ravaged planet, even though the increases are chiefly due to socioeconomic factors such as population growth and development in high-risk coastal areas and cities.

Distracts readers from the main hurricane problem facing the United States: the ever-growing concentration of population and wealth in vulnerable coastal regions, which is partly a consequence of federal flood insurance and other political subsidies.

Ignores the societal factors - such as poverty - that typically overwhelm climatic factors in determining people’s risk of damage or death from hurricanes, floods, drought, tornadoes, wildfires, and disease.

Implies that the 2006 tropical cyclone season in Australia was unusually active and, thus, symptomatic of global warming. In contrast, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) describes the season as “near average.”

Re-labels as “major floods,” a category defined by physical magnitude, a chart of “damaging floods,” a category defined by socioeconomic and political criteria.

Re-labels as “major wildfires,” a category defined by physical magnitude, a chart of “recorded wildfires,” a category reflecting changes in data collection and reporting, such as increases in the frequency and scope of satellite monitoring.

Conflates the Thermohaline Circulation (THC), a convective system primarily driven by differences in salinity and sea temperatures, with the Gulf Stream, a wind-driven system energized primarily by the Earth’s spin and the lunar tides, exaggerating the risk of a big chill in Europe from a weakening of the THC.

Presents a graph showing the number of annual closings of the Thames River tidal barriers from 1930 to the present, even though the modern barrier system was completed in 1982 and became operational in 1984. This apples-to-oranges comparison conveys the false impression that London faced no serious flood risk until recent decades.

Blames global warming for the decline “since the 1960s” of the emperor penguin population in Antarctica, implying that the penguins are in peril, their numbers dwindling as the world warms. In fact, the population declined in the 1970s and has been stable since the late 1980s.

Implies that a study finding that none of 928 science articles - actually abstracts - denied a CO2-global warming link, shows that Gore’s apocalyptic view of global warming is the “consensus” view among scientists.

Reports that 48 Nobel Prize-winning scientists accused President Bush of distorting science, without mentioning that the scientists acted as members of a “527″ political advocacy group set up to promote John Kerry’s 2004 campaign for president.

Implies that the United States is an environmental laggard because China has adopted more stringent fuel economy standards, glossing over China’s horrendous air quality problems.

Northern Ice 2005 (blue area)

EXAGGERATED

Exaggerates the certainty and hypes the importance of the alleged link between global warming and the frequency and severity of tropical storms.

Hypes the importance of NOAA running out of names (21 per year) for Atlantic hurricanes in 2005, and the fact that some storms continued into December. The practice of naming storms only goes back to 1953, and hurricane detection capabilities have improved dramatically since the 1950s, so the “record” number of named storms in 2005 may be an artifact of the resulting data. Also, Atlantic hurricanes continued into December in several previous years including 1878, 1887, and 1888.

Never explains why anyone should be alarmed about the current Arctic warming, considering that our stone-age ancestors survived - and likely benefited from - the much stronger and longer Arctic warming known as the Holocene Climate Optimum.

Portrays the cracking of the Ward Hunt ice shelf in 2002 as a portent of doom, even though the shelf was merely a remnant of a much larger Arctic ice formation that had already lost 90 percent of its area during 1906-1982.

Claims that polar bears “have been drowning in significant numbers,” but this is based on a single report that found four drowned polar bears in one month in one year, following an abrupt storm.

Claims that global warming is creating “ecological niches” for “invasive alien species,” never mentioning other, more important factors such as increases in trade, tourism, and urban heat islands. For example, due to population growth, Berlin warmed twice as much during 1886-1898 as the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates the entire world warmed during the 20th century.

Blames global warming for pine beetle infestations that likely have more to do with increased forest density and plain old mismanagement.

Presents a graph suggesting that China’s new fuel economy standards are almost 30 percent more stringent than the current U.S. standards. In fact, the Chinese standards are only about 5 percent more stringent.

Northern Ice 2030 (blue area)

SPECULATIVE

Warns of impending water shortages in Asia due to global warming but does not check whether there is any correlation between global warming and Eurasian snow cover (there isn’t). If Tibetan glaciers were to melt, that should increase water availability in the coming decades.

Claims that CO2 concentrations in the Holocene never rose above 300 parts per million (ppm) in pre-industrial times, and that the current level - 380 ppm - is “way above” the range of natural variability. Proxy data (leaf stoma frequency) indicate that, in the early Holocene, CO2 levels exceeded 330 ppm for centuries and reached 348 ppm.

Claims that a Scripps Oceanography Institute study shows that ocean temperatures during the past 40 years are “way above the range of natural variability.” Proxy data indicate that the Atlantic Ocean off the West Coast of Africa was warmer than present during the Medieval Warm Period.

Blames global warming for the record number of typhoons hitting Japan in 2004. Local meteorological conditions, not average global temperatures, determine the trajectory of particular storms, and data going back to 1950 show no correlation between North Pacific storm activity and global temperatures.

Blames global warming for the record-breaking 37-inch downpour in Mumbai, India on July 26, 2005, even though there has been no trend in Mumbai rainfall for the month of July in 45 years.

Blames global warming for recent floods in China’s Sichuan and Shandong provinces, even though far more damaging floods struck those areas in the 19th and early 20th centuries.

Blames global warming for the disappearance of Lake Chad, a phenomenon more likely stemming from a combination of regional climate variability and societal factors like population increase and overgrazing.

Claims that global warming is drying out soils all over the world, whereas pan evaporation studies (which measure the rate of evaporation from open pans of water) indicate that, in general, the Earth’s surface is becoming wetter.

Presents one climate model’s projection of increased U.S. drought as authoritative even though another leading model forecasts increased wetness. Climate model hydrology forecasts on regional scales are notoriously unreliable. Most of the United States, outside the Southwest, became wetter during 1925-2003.

Blames global warming for the severe drought that hit the Amazon in 2005. However, RealClimate.Org, a web site set up to debunk global warming “skeptics,” concluded that it is not possible to link the drought to global warming.

Warns of a positive feedback whereby carbon-induced warming melts tundra, releasing more CO2 locked up in frozen soils. An alternative scenario is also plausible: The range of carbon-storing vegetation expands as tundra thaws.

Claims that global warming endangers polar bears even though polar bear populations are increasing in Arctic areas where it is warming and declining in Arctic areas where it is cooling.

Blames global warming for Alaska’s “drunken trees” - trees rooted in previously frozen tundra, which sway in all directions as the ice melts - ignoring the possibly large role of the 1976 PDO shift.

Blames rising CO2 levels for recent declines in Arctic sea ice, ignoring the potentially large role of natural variability. AIT never mentions that wind pattern shifts may account for much of the observed changes in sea ice, or that the Canadian Arctic Archipelago had considerably less sea ice during the early Holocene.

Warns that meltwater from Greenland could disrupt the Atlantic thermohaline circulation based on research indicating that a major disruption occurred 8,200 years ago when a giant ice dam burst in North America, allowing two lakes to drain rapidly into the sea. AIT does not mention that the lakes injected more than 100,000 cubic kilometers of freshwater into the sea, whereas Greenland ice melt contributes only a few hundred cubic kilometers a year.

Warns that global warming is destroying coral reefs, even though today’s main reef builders evolved and thrived during periods substantially warmer than the present.

Warns that a doubling of pre-industrial CO2 levels to 560 ppm will so acidify seawater that all optimal areas for coral reef construction will disappear by 2050. This is not plausible. Coral calcification rates have increased as ocean temperatures and CO2 levels have risen, and today’s main reef builders evolved and thrived during the Mesozoic Period, when atmospheric CO2 levels hovered above 1,000 ppm for 150 million years and exceeded 2,000 ppm for several million years.

Links global warming to toxic algae bloom outbreaks in the Baltic Sea that can be entirely explained by record-high phosphorus levels, record-low nitrogen-to-phosphorus levels, and local meteorological conditions.

Asserts without evidence that global warming is causing more tick-borne disease (TBD). A 2004 study by Oxford University professor Sarah Randolph found no relationship between climate change and TBD in Europe.

Blames global warming for the resurgence of malaria in Kenya, even though several studies have found no climate link and attribute the problem to decreased spraying of homes with DDT, anti-malarial drug resistance, and incompetent public health programs.

Insinuates that global warming is a factor in the emergence of some 30 “new” diseases over the last three decades, but cites no supporting research or evidence.

Blames global warming for the decline “since the 1960s” of the emperor penguin population in Antarctica based on a speculative assessment by two researchers that warm sea temperatures in the 1970s reduced the birds’ main food source. An equally plausible explanation is that Antarctic ecotourism, which became popular in the 1970s, disturbed the rookeries.

Warns of “significant and alarming structural changes” in the submarine base of West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but does not tell us what those changes are or why they are “significant and alarming.” The melting and retreat of the WAIS “grounding line” has been going on since the early Holocene. At the rate of retreat observed in the late 1990s, the WAIS should disappear in about 7,000 years.

Warns that vertical water tunnels (”moulins”) are lubricating the Greenland Ice Sheet, increasing the risk that it will “slide” into the sea. Summertime glacier flow acceleration associated with moulins is tiny. Moulins in numbers equal to or surpassing those observed today probably occurred in the first half of the 20th century, when Greenland was as warm as or warmer than the past decade, with no major loss of grounded ice.

Presents 10 pages of before-and-after “photographs” showing what 20 feet of sea level rise would do to the world’s major coastal communities. There is no credible evidence of an impending collapse of the great ice sheets. We do have fairly good data on ice mass balance changes and their effects on sea level. NASA scientist Jay Zwally and colleagues found a combined Greenland/Antarctica ice-loss-sea-level-rise equivalent of 0.05 mm per year during 1992-2002. At that rate, it would take a full millennium to raise sea level by just 5 cm.

Forecasts an increase in U.S. renewable energy production during 1990-2030 more than twice that projected by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Northern Ice 2095 (none left)

WRONG

Claims that glaciologist Lonnie Thompson’s reconstruction of climate history proves the Medieval Warm Period was “tiny” compared to the warming observed in recent decades. It doesn’t. Four of Thompson’s six ice cores indicate the Medieval Warm Period was as warm as or warmer than any recent decade.

Calls carbon dioxide the “most important greenhouse gas.” Water vapor is the leading contributor to the greenhouse effect.

Claims that Venus is too hot and Mars too cold to support life due to differences in atmospheric CO2 concentrations (they are nearly identical), rather than differences in atmospheric densities and distances from the Sun (both huge).

Claims that scientists have validated the “hockey stick” reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere temperature history, according to which the 1990s were likely the warmest decade of the past millennium and 1998 the warmest year. It is now widely acknowledged that the hockey stick was built on a flawed methodology and inappropriate data. Scientists continue to debate whether the Medieval Warm period was warmer than recent decades.

Assumes that CO2 levels are increasing at roughly 1 percent annually. The actual rate is half that.

Assumes a linear relationship between CO2 levels and global temperatures, whereas the actual CO2-warming effect is logarithmic, meaning that the next 100-ppm increase in CO2 levels adds only half as much heat as the previous 100-ppm increase.

Claims that the rate of global warming is accelerating, whereas the rate has been constant for the past 30 years - roughly 0.17°C per decade.

Blames global warming for Europe’s killer heat wave of 2003 - an event caused by an atmospheric circulation anomaly.

Blames global warming for Hurricane Catarina, the first South Atlantic hurricane on record, which struck Brazil in 2004. Catarina formed not because the South Atlantic was unusually warm (sea temperatures were cooler than normal), but because the air was so much colder it produced the same kind of heat flux from the ocean that fuels hurricanes in warmer waters.

Claims that 2004 set an all-time record for the number of tornadoes in the United States. Tornado frequency has not increased; rather, the detection of smaller tornadoes has increased. If we consider the tornadoes that have been detectable for many decades (category F-3 or greater), there actually has been a downward trend since 1950.

Blames global warming for a “mass extinction crisis” that is not, in fact, occurring.

Blames global warming for the rapid coast-to-coast spread of the West Nile virus. North America contains nearly all the climate types in the world - from hot, dry deserts to boreal forests to frigid tundra - a range that dwarfs any small alteration in temperature or precipitation that may be related to atmospheric CO2 levels. The virus could not have spread so far so fast if it were climate-sensitive.

Cites Tuvalu, Polynesia, as a place where rising sea levels force residents to evacuate their homes. In reality, sea levels at Tuvalu fell during the latter half of the 20th century and even during the 1990s, allegedly the warmest decade of the millennium.

Claims that sea level rise could be many times larger and more rapid “depending on the choices we make or do not make now” concerning global warming. Not so. The most aggressive choice America could make now would be to join Europe in implementing the Kyoto Protocol. Assuming the science underpinning Kyoto is correct, the treaty would avert only 1 cm of sea level rise by 2050 and 2.5 cm by 2100.

Accuses ExxonMobil of running a “disinformation campaign” designed to “reposition global warming as theory, rather than fact,” even though two clicks of the mouse reveal that ExxonMobil acknowledges global warming as a fact.

Claims that President Bush hired Phil Cooney to “be in charge” of White House environmental policy. This must be a surprise to White House Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) Chairman James Connaughton, who hired Cooney and was his boss at the CEQ.

Claims that the European Union’s emission trading system (ETS) is working “effectively.” In fact, the ETS is not reducing emissions, will transfer an estimated £1.5 billion from British firms to competitors in countries with weaker controls, has enabled oil companies to profit at the expense of hospitals and schools, and has been an administrative nightmare for small firms.

Claims U.S. firms won’t be able to sell American-made cars in China because Chinese fuel-economy standards are stricter, even though many U.S.-made cars meet the Chinese standards.

Conclusion: Vice President Gore calls global warming a “moral issue,” but for him it is a moralizing issue - a license to castigate political adversaries and blame America first for everything from hurricanes to floods to wildfires to tick-borne disease. Somehow Gore sees nothing immoral in the attempt to make fossil energy scarcer and more costly in a world where 1.6 billion people still have no access to electricity and billions more are too poor to own a car.

Nearly every significant statement that Vice President Gore makes regarding climate science and climate policy is either one sided, misleading, exaggerated, speculative, or wrong. In light of these numerous distortions, “An Inconvenient Truth” is ill-suited to serve as a guide to climate science and climate policy for the American people.

About the Author: Marlo Lewis, Jr. is a Senior Fellow at the Competitive Enterprise Institute (www.cei.org), where he writes on global warming, energy policy, and other public policy issues. Originally published by the Competitive Enterprise Institute on September 28, 2006, this is a brief overview of author Lewis’s critique of An Inconvenient Truth. Republished with permission. For further documentation, please read the Lewis’s upcoming full-length monograph, “A Skeptic’s Guide to An Inconvenient Truth.“

Costa Rica’s famed Mt. Arenal Volcano Even lava flows are not as destructive as anthropogenic deforestation

The verdant pastureland of Costa Rica Although pretty, this is deforestation because the land use has changed.

To solve the problem of deforestation, we have to plant forests, not just trees.

The definition of deforestation is not the loss of trees, but the change of land use from forested to some other use. If trees are lost even through clear cutting, if the land is left alone, the trees will come back eventually.

In order to reforest, we have to permanently return land to forest use. If you go out and plant trees anywhere you want - perhaps farmers will let you plant on their property, for example - you haven’t yet reforested. This is because eventually someone can cut down those trees because of the value represented there. Very often, someone protects a section of their property and never cuts the trees, but after they die, the property is sold and their protected forest is cleared and turned to another use.

This is also a problem that governments don’t seem to handle very well. As seen in the USA, what one administration protects, another administration harvests. As pressure grows on governments because of the debt they all seem to build, the forest is being liquidated - just like those who own properties often sell their trees to help pay off debt or for money to live.

Almost anyone would eventually cut down their trees if economic pressures were severe enough. If you own your own home, where it stands was probably a forest at one time. Would you willingly abandon your home (and the money it represents) in order to let the forest come back? Most likely not, because the money lost to you would be very significant, and you probably could not afford it.

Voluntary preservation of the forest is not enough. This is why it is so difficult to stop deforestation in the tropics - a well-grown tree represents a lot of money. In Costa Rica and in most tropical regions, a farm worker could buy a home with the money from a single mature tree.

Replacing deforestation with reforestation must meet the following three requirements:

The trees must be able to fund land preservation.

The trees must be able to diversify.

The trees must be able to fund more acquisition of more land.

The Trees Must Be Able to Fund Land Preservation

Finca Leola

Trees have to have a way to pay for their own protection. Even though the Costa Rican government has put aside more than 25 percent of its land as permanent parks, the government doesn’t have the money to adequately protect those parks. Because of that, some of the bigger national parks are at risk because of tree poaching. Remember that an old growth tree (which is only 100 years old here) could potentially buy a home in Costa Rica.

Thinking a forest will survive without protection is like thinking you could protect your money by leaving it by the side of the road. Sure, there would be many people who would either pass it by or try to give it back to you - but it only takes one person who would consider it “finders keepers” for you to lose your unprotected money. Most Costa Ricans respect the need to preserve the forest, but it only takes a few to undo all the time spent growing trees. We know of a group involved in reforesting who will not accept donations of forested lands because they don’t have the resources to protect the lands after they receive them.

It isn’t as simple as just planting trees on land set aside for the purpose - or even passing laws saying areas are protected. Without active protection, the trees will eventually be gone, just like your money by the side of the road.

The Costa Rican Rainforest

The Trees Must Be Able to Diversify

We need forests rather than continuous monocrop plantations of trees all of the same age. Also, monocropping is risky: Many monocrop plantations in the USA are being lost to pests and diseases that spread easily when all the trees in an area are to their liking. If you have a single tree of a particular type, there generally isn’t much of an issue, but plant thousands of hectares of the same species and you are just asking for problems. They may survive, but only because of constant vigilance and perhaps constant application of pesticides.

There is no way to create a permanent forest out of only one species of tree. Usually, forests start with pioneer species, and these do tend to be clumps of all the same trees. This works well, because the purpose of these trees is to create the shade required for the trees of the climax forest to grow. It also works well because these trees tend to be relatively short lived. However, after the pioneer species, you have to move toward diversity; otherwise you don’t have a forest, you have a crop - and in truth, a crop that will be in danger of failure due to insects or disease. We must remember as well that one of the reasons to want to reclaim forestland is to be able to prevent the extinction of many plants and animals that depend on a real forest.

The Trees Must Be Able to Fund Acquisition of More Land

In many parts of the world, it is critical that we plant a lot of trees and return a lot of land to forest. The loss of the forest contributes to loss of habitat for animals, a reduction in available drinkable water, loss of soil and even landslides that destroy towns and villages. We also need to increase the number of trees to absorb the excess gases that cause global warming. Moreover, there is a direct link between deforestation and drought, which has become a severe and worsening problem - totally reversible through reforestation - throughout the tropics.

Most reforestation efforts are being spent on plantations, not on genuine new forests. We use the term “reforestation” a lot, but in reality, unless the lands are permanently returned to forest, you are not reforesting, you are raising a crop of trees. Tree plantations can reduce commercial pressure on remaining forests, but they are not themselves new forests. Just like a loss of trees is not deforestation unless the land usage permanently changes, it isn’t reforestation unless the end result is a forest.

Let the Trees Work for a Living

It would be wonderful if the trees, from their own “work,” could buy more space for more trees! What is the work of trees? Well, they grow. Look around your home and see the wood in it. A logger brought trees out of a forest, cut them down, and hauled them to a sawyer, who cut them into boards. A carpenter or a craftsman created something out of them for your use and enjoyment. They all got paid for that wood - but the trees never did. You cannot continue to expect the forest to work for nothing - it starves just like we would. In fact, if the forest received money for its “work,” it would not only survive, but fund its own preservation and expansion.

From the mill in the forest to the trailhead Costa Rican lumber makes its way to market

There is a way to pay the trees. We call it the Tree Avalanche. The Tree Avalanche works by using donated trees to create a pioneer forest of valuable wood. Among these trees are also planted the succession trees that will make up the more mature rainforest. Most tropical succession trees require shade to grow; that’s why planting pioneer species speeds up the creation of the new forest.

When the pioneer trees are removed to leave the succession trees to form the new forest, the money realized will be used to purchase more land and plant more pioneer and succession trees. Since the money gained from the pioneer trees is more than the money it costs to plant, care for, and harvest them, the amount going into reforestation keeps multiplying. This is an avalanche that leaves in its wake a swath of new forest instead a path of destruction.

But will we really be able to create an “avalanche” of trees? This simple story explains why we will. There once was a man who did something that a king wanted to reward. The king asked the man, “What do you want as a reward?” The man replied, “I don’t want much, just the following: On the first day, place a grain of rice on the first square of a chessboard and then give it to me, then, on the second day, place two grains on the second square and give them to me, and then on the third day, double that and place four grains on the third square and give them to me. Keep doubling the grains in this way until you use up all the squares.” The king almost agreed, until a person better at math pointed out that before the end of the 64 days, the man would own the kingdom! This is called a geometric progression, or compounding.

THE TREE AVALANCHE

As a cash crop, the natural increase in growth of 100 trees would, within 100 years, result in a forest of 12 million trees - triple the growth if left to nature.

Instead of one grain of rice, let’s start with 100 trees planted in Costa Rica.

The first year there are 100 trees, and they cover about 0.17 hectare, or 0.42 acre.

In the tropics, within 6 to 8 years, some of these trees have to be harvested as thinnings to leave space for the other trees to keep growing. These trees will have about 100 board feet each in them at thinning, and between 33 and 45 percent of the trees are harvested in the first thinning. Rare tropical woods return good money. The forest’s profit on the trees goes to buy 80 more seedlings and land to plant them. So now there are 180 trees, covering 0.31 hectare.

About every 4 years, some trees have to be thinned out and are sold. Because the trees are getting bigger, the percentage of valuable wood grows too. Also, the wider the plank, the more expensive it is per board foot.

Every time we have to thin, more trees are bought with the proceeds. Around year 17, an interesting thing starts to happen. The trees that were bought with the proceeds from the first thinning now have their own first thinning, which is used to buy more trees.

By year 17, the original 100 trees have increased to more than 450 trees covering about 0.80 hectares.

By year 25, there are more than 1,600 trees covering more than 2.7 hectares.

By year 58, the 100 trees have increased to being more than a square kilometer (100 hectares).

By year 100, the original 100 trees will have taken over 0.38 percent of the land mass of Costa Rica or nearly 20,000 hectares.

Portable sawmills can operate in remote areas, reducing need for new roads, and bringing more value to local communities

How the Tree Avalanche Handles the Problems of Deforestation

The key to how the Tree Avalanche enables the forest to protect itself and diversify is the succession forest. When you plant 110 pioneer trees, you can expect 5 or 10 to fail for reasons of genetic problems or damage by wildlife or nature.

Instead of replanting the same tree, we do what nature would do: We introduce another kind of tree. Since there is usually some shade by this point, we can introduce the slower growing, shade-loving trees that will make up the permanent forest.

Over the next 25 years, all the pioneer trees will be removed, leaving at the end the succession trees. These trees will be at the point of bearing seeds and will quickly fill in any remaining holes - just like in a natural forest. This means that behind the Tree Avalanche is left not a monocrop plantation, but a true forest. And it comes about a lot faster than occurs in nature. We still have to protect the forest, though, so we aren’t done yet. After the pioneer trees have all been removed, we have to pay taxes and pay people to care for and guard the forest. Thankfully, the forest is able to provide for that. By only removing boards from selectively harvested trees every year, more than enough money will be generated to pay taxes and to pay the “tree shepherds,” as we like to call them.

The decision to remove a tree will never be made based on the profit it can bring, since the forest owns the trees, and a forest doesn’t care about fancy cars or worry about retirement. The decision to remove a tree will be based on whether it improves the forest. This will include removing trees that have fallen and replanting with other trees, introducing a different variety when there are too many of one type for proper diversity, and removing diseased trees that threaten the rest of the forest. The wood itself will be carefully extracted using portable sawing techniques that cause very little (if any) damage to the forest and leave all the limbs, bark, and waste wood in the forest to go back to the soil. Only the sellable part of the trees will be removed.

Even though we have been talking about the needs of the forest, the forest, as a good neighbor, will be generating by its work jobs for those in the surrounding areas: jobs for those who watch the forest, those who harvest the boards, and those who produce forest products to sell. This is very important - it causes the people living around the forest to value it and to provide protection as well.

Pioneer trees between forested areas getting started putting the forest back

How Do We Know We Can Do This?

Finca Leola S.A. grows trees in Costa Rica for people around the world. People buy trees from us that we take care of for 25 years. They receive the value of their wood at every thinning and at the final harvest, but we plant a succession forest of slower growing trees in between the trees we grow for people. We are placing all the land that we are planting, whether owned by us or by someone else, under an ecological easement that will protect the resultant perpetual forest forever. The ecological easement is crafted to make sure that the entity that is served is the forest. The easement rides in perpetuity with title to the land, and as the trees will always keep producing money, they will always be able to pay to enforce the easement and pay for the guardians of the forest.

The idea for the Tree Avalanche started when someone asked if they could buy trees to help with reforestation, but they didn’t want the money back from the wood harvest. We were excited when we realized that we could use the money that came out of the trees to plant more trees. When we did a simulation of the impact of that, we were astonished, and the concept of the Tree Avalanche was born.

So as you can see, for us to produce a Tree Avalanche, we just have to keep doing our job. We already have people contributing to it, but we would like to invite you to help push the Tree Avalanche faster.

Look around your home and see all the wood that is in it. Some you cannot see, because it is within the walls, but it is still there. Everyone got paid for that wood - except the forest itself. Please help the forest (and ultimately ourselves as well) by donating to accelerate an avalanche of trees.

We will all breathe easier because of your help.

To learn more about Finca Leola S.A. and reforestation go to www.fincaleola.com.

Egypt, an ancient land along the fertile Nile, awakens to solar technology. Why not build solar/fossil fuel hybrid-design power plants?

Since 1967, up to 2.1 gigawatts of electricity has been generated from the Aswan High Dam. How soon will solar power match and exceed this prodigious output?

To ensure adequate provision of electricity, the Egyptian Electricity Holding Company now projects requiring on average about 1,500 MW of new capacity each year.

To ensure adequate provision of electricity, the Egyptian Electricity Holding Company (EEHC) — a near-monopolist responsible for generation, transmission and distribution of electricity — now projects requiring on average about 1,500 MW of new capacity each year. The government says that renewable energy projects should play a part in Egypt’s generation plan. Indeed, 145 MW of wind-turbines have already been installed and are operational, performing well at an average capacity factor of 42%.

Egypt’s fast growing demand for electricity requires significant investment in generation capacity each year (the increase in demand for electricity in Egypt averaged about 7% during 1997/98-2003/04 and is expected to remain in the 6%-7% range over the next 10 years). Installed capacity of electric power was 18,119 MW in 2003/04, of which 84% comprised thermal power (8% of which is provided by the private sector through 3 Independent Power Producers, IPPs). The remaining capacity was attributed to hydropower (15%) and wind (1%). Peak load reached 14,735 MW, and about 90% of the thermal power production was based on natural gas. Initiatives are underway to better understand customer consumption patterns and loads to ultimately implement demand-side management measures to reduce the overall consumption and the growth in demand.

World Bank assistance is being provided to enhance energy efficiency in the power sector under the El Tebbin Power Project. This covers pricing as well as load management planning, The Government’s strategy is to continue to implement gas fired power plants, with a long-term view to increase the share of combined cycle gas turbine technology in the generation mix. In addition, the Government has a target of meeting 3% of its primary energy needs from renewable energy sources by 2010. The New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA) has the responsibility to develop renewable resources in Egypt and implement the government’s strategy on renewable energy. Until 2001, most of NREA’s activities have been in the research and development field, and since then its activities have increasingly turned to the production of renewable energy.

The New & Renewable Energy Authority’s strategy is to capitalize on Egypt’s abundant wind and solar natural resources to meet the renewable energy target set by the Government. For this purpose it plans to install an additional 400 MW of wind by 2010 and considers the construction of the proposed Solar Thermal Hybrid Power Plant (151 MW) a key development towards improving and diversifying its institutional and technical capacity in the area of renewable energy.

The primary objective of the new World Bank-funded project is to increase the share of solar-based power in the Egyptian generation mix thereby contributing to the Government’s aim of diversifying power production. The key performance indicators for the development objectives of the project include:

-Total electricity generated from solar field (GWh/year)

-Solar output as a percentage of total energy produced by the hybrid plant.

-Total electricity generated from the ISCC power plant (GWh/year)

The global impact is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from anthropogenic sources by increasing the market share of low greenhouse gas emitting technologies.

The project will finance the construction of an Integrated Solar Combined Cycle (ISCC) power plant, to be located in Kureimat, about 95 km south of Cairo, on the eastern side of the river Nile.

The main innovation of an ISCC plant is the integration of steam generated by solar energy into a combined cycle power plant, which will require a larger steam turbine to generate electrical energy from the additional solar-generated steam.

Supplying the fossil fuel, Egypt’s EGAS Co.

The plant will have a capacity of about 150 MW, combining a conventional fossil fuel portion of about 120 MW and an input from solar sources of about 30 MW. When own consumption of 5.3 MW is deducted, the net overall plant capacity becomes 145.7 MW. The total net energy produced by the plant is expected to be 984 GWh per year, which includes the solar contribution of 64.5 GWh per year. This corresponds to a solar share of 6.6% percent of the total annual energy produced by the plant operating at a full load. The primary fuel for the conventional fossil fuel portion will be natural gas supplied at the site by the Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company.

The project will be implemented through the following components whose costs are estimated inclusive of import taxes on equipment and contingencies:

Component 1: The design, construction and operation of the proposed Integrated Solar Combined Cycle Plant include two sub-components:

–The solar portion of the power plant will include one contract for engineering, procurement, construction, testing, commissioning and five years operation and maintenance (O&M).

–The Combined Cycle portion of the plant will include one contract for the EPC aspect of the power plant financed by JBIC and a one 5 year O&M contract financed by NREA.

Component 2: Comprises the consulting contract to provide construction management services during the construction, testing and operation of the plant.

Component 3: Comprises the Environmental and Social Impact management component to be financed by NREA.

The project’s financing will be structured in this fashion (USD - Millions:

Government of Egypt, $59.12

World Bank’s Global Environment Facility $50.00

Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), $92.33

Total Financing, $201.45

The Government of Egypt’s commitment to renewable energy resource development is strong as evidenced by its declared objective of diversifying energy sources, including having 3% of installed capacity represented by renewable energy by 2010 and the establishment of the “petroleum fund” which provides economic incentive to renewable energy producers.

Most of the higher capital cost of the hybrid plant will be offset by the World Bank Global Environment Facility (GEF) incremental cost grant, Furthermore, NREA has declared its willingness to finance incremental cost above US$50 million, recognizing the cap on GEF grant support to the project.

Finally, the integration of the solar field with a CCGT ensures that the hybrid will provide the required electricity contribution to the system regardless of solar radiation conditions. For these reasons, the hybrid power plant is expected to operate sustainably as an integral part of the Egyptian power system. The incentive structure for the solar and CCGT O&M operators will ensure efficient operation of the plant and optimal design for integration of the solar thermal with the gas-fired plant and maximize solar output from the plant when in operation.

NREA has gained significant experience in designing and implementing wind energy projects with international loan and grant financing. The lessons drawn from this experience include: the importance of transparent and well-managed competitive bidding processes, which have contributed to attracting the interest and comfort of major international suppliers of wind technology with business transactions in Egypt.

Furthermore, through the development of these projects, NREA has operated under Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with Egyptian Electricity Holding Co. and has gained significant experience in structuring and negotiating such agreements. This experience will be very useful for the proposed project, in which a PPA will need to be put in place as well as a Gas Purchase Agreement (GPA).

No large-scale solar thermal power plants have been built in developing countries to date, however several small-scale projects are under construction around the world. At the moment, GEF-supported projects are also in preparation in Mexico and Morocco. The most significant solar thermal installations are in California where 354 MW of parabolic troughs, with back-up gas fired steam boilers have been generating electricity and selling it to the utility since the 1980s.

California’s Kramer Junction Power Station uses arrays of parabolic troughs with natural gas fueled backup boilers

To meet the cost reduction objective of the project, it will be necessary to move beyond the trough/backup boiler design upon which the California plant is based. The purpose is to permit higher thermal efficiencies, improve the dispatchability of the plant and to encourage greater competition in the design and supply of equipment. Such a plant would be more attractive to utilities, thus increasing the market size.

The political system in Egypt can be characterized by stability and continuity. A comprehensive reform program was adopted in 2004 when significant change took place in the cabinet and several new officials were appointed to key ministerial positions. This new government has made economic reform its key objective, notably in areas such as finance, investment, trade and industry. It has also stated its keen interest in expanding public-private partnerships and undertaking public sector reforms aimed at enhancing the provision of public goods and services, including physical and social infrastructure. The latter includes the power sector.

The investment needs in infrastructure remain substantial. It is estimated that approximately 4-6% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) needs to be invested annually in infrastructure sectors in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region to satisfy new investment requirements as well as maintenance and replacement spending. The decline in investment in the MENA region, including in Egypt, is reported to have compromised the infrastructure base, which is further challenged by the high growth in demand for modern infrastructure services.

About the Author: Gordon Feller is the CEO of Urban Age Institute (www.UrbanAge.org). During the past twenty years he has authored more than 500 magazine articles, journal articles or newspaper articles on the profound changes underway in politics, economics, and ecology - with a special emphasis on sustainable development. Gordon is the editor of Urban Age Magazine, a unique quarterly which serves as a global resource and which was founded in 1990. He can be reached at GordonFeller@UrbanAge.org and he is available for speaking to your organization about the issues raised in this and his other numerous articles published in EcoWorld.

Since 1958, the observatory at Mauna Loa has tracked concentrations of atmospheric CO2 (Photo: NOAA)

What’s up there? A weather balloon ascends to add another piece to the puzzle. (Photo: NOAA)

The facts are in the figures - and the figures don’t support the ex-vice president’s dire predictions about global warming

According to Al Gore, if we don’t take action to prevent global warming over the next 10 years, we will have pushed the earth into a climatic and environmental tailspin that will by the end of the century have caused sea levels to rise; ice caps to melt; and hurricanes, droughts, and floods to increase in both strength and frequency. And that’s just the beginning. Gore and others who warn of global warming - including organizations such as the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Control (IPCC) - predict that all of these catastrophes will occur as a result of rapidly rising global temperatures caused primarily by emissions of man-made carbon dioxide (CO2).

With Gore’s views front and center via his new book and documentary film An Inconvenient Truth, it’s time to take a closer look at the global warming/greenhouse gas prognostications - particularly when one considers the massive amounts of money governments are committing to solving the perceived problem. Consider this as you think about the statistics revealed in this article: The Kyoto Accord is anticipated to cost the participating Western nations a whopping 2% of their GDP per year. Is it worth it?

Scientific data indicates that the earth has warmed by approximately 0.8 degrees Celsius over the last century, and that man-made CO2 has contributed to global warming since World War II. Meanwhile, the net earth warming since World War II has been 0.4 C. The debate among experts boils down to the following issues: How much global warming occurs naturally, and how much can be attributed to human inflicted change? And how much effect to CO2 gases - by themselves - have on temperature increases and other predicted climate change?

Proponents of global warming theories predict that temperatures will rise 5.8 C (IPCC, 2001) or more this century. Let’s take a closer look. For the earth to experience a growing greenhouse effect and linear rising temperatures, CO2 levels must increase exponentially. If CO2 levels increase only linearly, the increase in temperature flattens out. Water vapor, the main greenhouse gas, acts in the same way. Well, guess what? CO2 emissions have been increasing at exponential rates since World War II, fueling the warnings of those pointing to the dangers of climate change.

ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATIONS SINCE 1958 - PARTS PER MILLION

CO2 in our atmosphere has increased from around 315 PPM in 1958 to about 370 PPM today. Note the annual drop of 5-10 PPM caused during spring and summer in the vast forests of the northern hemisphere. (Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center)

Digging a little deeper, though, a study of the CO2 atmospheric content data from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii reveals that since the late 1970’s - the start of the modern-day energy conservation movement - CO2 levels have only increased linearly (at approximately 1.5 ppm per year).

What’s more, since the late 1970’s, the global temperature has been increasing at a constant rate of 0.17 C per decade. Add to this information data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showing that the annual per-capital CO2 global emissions rate has flattened out since the early 1980s, and you begin to see the problem: Based on these facts, no one can predict exponential increases in man-made CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. And if there’s no exponential increase in CO2, there can be no global warming.

Still need convincing? Consider these facts: Per GDP dollar, we’re currently using only 60% of the energy we used in 1980. In addition, recent upper-atmosphere weather balloon and satellite temperature measurements show no net upper atmosphere warming since 1970. There are also plenty of studies predicting that warming in the next 50 years will amount to less than 1.0 C. In fact, even most climate models referred to in the IPCC study from 2001 predict warming to be around their low value of 1.4 C.

So how does Gore come to his conclusions? In his movie, he points to a global temperature model reflecting 1,000 years of temperature history to support his thesis. The graph shows a flat temperature range for 900 years and a dramatic rise over the last 100 years. Since human-produced greenhouse emissions have only existed since the last century, Gore deduces, they must be the reason for the warming during that same period. This graph, however, is controversial for a couple of reasons: 1) Many believe it should show temperature fluctuations starting earlier in the last millennia; and 2) it depends solely on tree-ring analysis, which provides accurate documentation of temperature variances over decade-long periods but is far less accurate for long-term variance.

THE ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATION (AMO)

If historical trends hold, by around 2025, sea surface temperatures will decline again, and Atlantic hurricanes will diminish in intensity. (Source: NOAA)

Various studies show that mean global temperatures rose and fell long before man-made greenhouse gases existed. The sun’s energy is the main determinant for the earth’s varying temperature; earth axis rotation and other systemic cycles also have an effect. Man, in contrast, has a minor effect.

Take hurricanes: Gore believes that the recent increase in hurricanes is a result of human activity and the global warming that has resulted. But the recent upsurge in hurricanes is consistent with observed trends since 1850.

The main forcing function for hurricane formation is the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Every 25 to 40 years, the warm Gulf waters and the Caribbean currents oscillate northward or southward to or from the upper Atlantic Ocean. Sure enough, observed hurricane activity and intensity since 1850 have increased and decreased in tandem with this oscillation. In contrast, recent studies show that increased sea surface temperatures have only added to storm intensity by a couple of percentage points.

Or take Mr. Gore’s prediction that sea levels will rise 20 feet by the end of this century. For the last few thousand years, the sea level has risen at a steady rate of 1.5 mm per year. The 6 inch increase in sea level during the last century is consistent with that rate. In addition, Greenland ice levels have been constant over the last few decades as well. While it’s true that ice cleaving and ice flow rates at the coast have increased in recent years, these shifts are due to the AMO - and will abate once the AMO oscillates southward. What the global warming theorists fail to mention in their findings is that the increased ice and snow pack on Greenland is balancing out the coastal melting. And what’s creating the increased ice and snow pack? Warmer sea surface temperatures: The increased temperatures create moisture, which in turn causes additional snowfall.

Is it global warming, or deforestation, that shrinks the glacier? Mt. Kilimanjaro from outer space. (Photo: NASA)

Similar observations have been made in the Antarctic. Although proponents of the global warming theory refer to a study showing reduced ice content at the tip of one peninsula, they ignore the snowfall data from several Antarctic continental stations showing increasing ice packs from the extra sea moisture.

Finally, climate data indicates that the ice cap on Tanzania’s Mt. Kilimanjaro depends on localized temperature-independent precipitation levels. Based on simple observations of the melt rate on Mt. Kilimanjaro, we can see that ice was actually melting at a higher rate early last century than it is today because of less precipitation.

Given this data, one has to question the motives of climate change theory proponents: Could they be after the $4 billion in government grants available to scientists studying climate change? With policies such as the Kyoto Accord’s CO2 emission control goal offering no apparent discernible temperature reduction, it’s imperative that a debate on global warming ensue.

This article was originally published in AlwaysOn Magazine, and is republished with permission.

Related Feature Reports:

Global Warming Facts

by Dr. Richard Lindzen, October 15, 2006

Climate Catastrophe

by Dr. Richard Lindzen, September 5, 2006

Global Warming

by Dr. Edward Wheeler, April 25, 2006

Related Editorial Commentary:

Global Warming Postulate

November 9, 2006

Global Warming Litigation

November 8, 2006

Brazilian vs. Californian Ethanol

October 23, 2006

Greenland’s Ice Melting Slowly

October 20, 2006

Filthy Air With Less CO2

October 12, 2006

Additional Facts and Commentary on Global Warming

Caged helplessly, with permanent catheters, Bears can yield gall bile for decades before dying. (Photo: International Fund for Animal Welfare)

Rangers provide protective cover (Photo: IFAW/Richard Sobol)

A person will do anything to feel better when they are sick.

While in Korea, one might find themselves sipping Asiatic Black Bear bile to cure an ailing liver. In China, ground tiger bone has been used to treat arthritis for centuries while a tiger’s penis makes a soup believed to work as an aphrodisiac. A rhino horn is believed to cure everything from fever to convulsions.

With a price tag of over $5,000 dollars for a bear’s bile producing gall bladder and up to $400 for a bowl of libido inducing soup, these are extremely costly remedies. Not to mention the cost of losing yet another wild animal to harvest its parts.

Billions of dollars worth of animal parts are bought world wide on a yearly basis. Traditional medicine is a major reason for the illegal trade of wildlife, a taste for the exotic is another. It might seem like a good idea to try some of the delicacies made from wild meat, but even if one finds shark fin soup, snake fillets, or pangolin (Asian ant-eater) steaks appetizing, it is important to realize that an animal (often endangered or threatened) was killed unnecessarily for the experience.

Illegal animal trade is most acute in Asia, and this is where one of the most successful environmental groups, WildAid, has managed to make the biggest difference. WildAid fights illegal trade aggressively by working with the local governments, communities and celebrities. The organization’s website explains that their “programs disrupt the trade at every level by reducing poaching, targeting illegal traders and smugglers, and drastically lowering consumer demand for endangered species parts and products.”

Co-founder of WildAid, Peter Knights, travels the world in an effort to help governments protect the endangered species of their country from poachers by any means necessary. In the past, it was not unheard of for Knights to expose poachers by taking the dangerous role of an undercover buyer. Most of WildAid’s current work, however, involves more traditional methods such as training the local rangers or educating the public.

Once majestic and fearless, this Congolese Elephant was no match for guns and the huge market for his ivory. (Photo: IFAW/Richard Sobol)

WildAid is unique on its focus on addressing world demand for animal parts.

“Over 80 celebrities, mostly Asians, have recorded public service announcements that they have stopped buying wild caught products. Top advertising agency J. Walter Thompson has produced amazing Nike quality commercials pro bono,” says Knights with pride, “and most importantly our message goes out all over the world to up to 1 billion people a week. We’ve had a tremendous response from Bollywood in India and great support from stars and the media in China, the largest source of demand. Our messages have aired prime time on the main government TV stations. Last month Yao Ming [the 7"5 foot tall basketball player famous for being the best and most dedicated player in China and welcome addition to the NBA], held a press conference for WildAid and vowed never to eat shark fin soup again.”

Jackie Chan, arguably the most famous celebrity in the world, known for his action packed Kung-Fu movies, is also a representative of WildAid. As one of the International ambassadors for WildAid’s ‘Active Conservation Awareness Program’ (ACAP), Jackie delivers WildAid’s message. A variety of Media Partners such as CNN, Discovery, National Geographic, StarTV, CBS, NBC, Fox, Bloomberg and China’s CCTV, provide WildAid with free air-time where celebrities can voice their opinion on wildlife trade.

“It is basically analogous to the drug trade,” Knights continues to explain, “law enforcement alone is not going to make the problem go away. If people want to buy drugs and enough people have the money to do so, then there will be people willing to grow, smuggle and sell the stuff no matter how many coca fields you destroy. The long term solution is for people to stop buying products. We need to stop demand. To do that you need to raise awareness and make it socially unacceptable.”

Shark fin is the most widely spread product in China. One can even purchase prepackaged, ready made soups that contain shark fin at most grocery stores. The sharks harvested for their fins are not classified as endangered largely because fishing records are too poor to document the declines. These sharks will eventually reach the endangered list if current trends continue. Knights explains why shark fin is so popular: “It is a prestigious thing to eat shark fin in China. It is a sign of respect because people know it is expensive. Wild animal meat is seen as an exotic luxury&We did a survey and 35% of the surveyed urban Chinese reported having eaten it in the last year. The Survey included 24,000 people in 14 cities. Snakes are another wild animal often eaten and China has recently banned the eating of snakes to discourage this. So there is hope that the government will act as well as supporting the education efforts.”

Dried Seal penises such as these await buyers succumbed to promises of traditional medicine (Photo: IFAW)

Various surveys were taken before and after WildAid launched their campaign to stop shark fin soup consumption, and the results are promising. “We don’t know the exact number of other illegally traded goods, “says Knights, “In Thailand, 30% of those surveyed said they stopped eating shark fin altogether. In Taiwan, 38% of the public said they ate less shark fin and 15% stopped completely. Another sign that our campaign has made a difference is that in Thailand, people of the shark fin trade actually tried to sue us.”

Wildlife poachers and traders are not too happy about WildAid reducing the appeal of their product, but Knights insists that they will be out of work shortly anyway if they continue their activities. “Finding alternative income sources for poachers is part of the solution, as is beefing up law enforcement,” he says.

What many people don’t know is that eating wild meat is risky. Many diseases are found in wild animals. What is worse is that illegally traded meat does not undergo a real health inspection. The meat from a tiger looks the same whether the animal is sick or not, and a poacher will get paid either way.

“There is a high risk of disease transmission,” says Knights, “the risk is also increased because it is unregulated. SARS was thought to initially be related to the trade and many are unaware of the anthrax and Ebola transmissions that could occur through bush-meat trade; there have been cases in Africa where animals have died from anthrax and this bush-meat was still sold for consumption. The most likely source to new disease outbreaks to which we have no immunity is from wild animals that haven’t been in close contact with humans previously. As deforestation goes on, new areas become accessible and bush meat hunters follow, shipping potentially tainted meat to cities and even internationally…You couldn’t find a better way to spread disease.”

A rescued Chimp in Northern Zambia whose parents were killed for bushmeat (Photo: IFAW/John Hrusa)

Commando, a rescued baby chimp, at Chimfunshi Wildlife Orphanage in Northern Zambia. Commando was orphaned as a result of illegal bushmeat trade in Central African Republic. Photographer: Jon Hrusa

Pets can also harbor dangerous diseases: The monkey-pox outbreak that affected dozens of people in the U.S who bought prairie dogs was traced back to a Gambian rat imported from Africa that was caged with the prairie dogs. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) warns that macaques can transfer the herpes B virus to humans and imported parrots carry psittacosis and reptiles salmonella. It can also be a threat to domestic livestock: Newcastle disease, carried by smuggled parrots, resulted in the deaths of millions of chickens and turkeys in the past decade.

Apparently, with illegally traded and wild caught animals, you never know what you’re going to get. You might have purchased an exotic virus to go along with the exotic animal. Importing wild animals and their parts is not just harmful for the species in question, but also for the consumer. In a bizarre way, these animals are retaliating.

Things are not just risky when it comes to eating wild animal meat, but can also be a waste of money. With the knowledge that a bowl of exotic tiger soup can bring in $500, restaurant owners will obviously try and sell that product whether the ingredients are at hand or not. Consumers will not be happy to know that the tiger penis soup they enjoyed earlier that evening actually contained a donkey tendon marinated in tiger urine instead of the main ingredient they had paid so much for.

Local populations are not the only ones that provide the demand for illegally traded products; Tourists have a major impact on wildlife trade. Tourists are drawn to remote locations where a variety of products can be bought from local merchants. Some of the most popular items sold are made from turtle shells, reptile skins, animal fur or ivory. The coasters, combs, forks, carpets or jewelry might look beautiful, but purchasing these items only encourages poachers to continue killing the animals that supply the necessary parts.

In a beautiful silk box, Rhino horn and Rhino horn medicine. (Photo: IFAW)

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife’s brochure ‘Facts about Federal Wildlife Laws‘ includes a large list of items sold to tourists worldwide. Items falling into the endangered species category which are commonly sold abroad but are prohibited entry into the U.S [and most other countries] include:

Whole shells or “tortoise” shell jewelry made from shells of sea turtles.

Sea turtle soup and facial creams.

Rugs, pelts, hunting trophies, and a wide variety of manufactured articles (such as handbags, compacts, coats, wallets, key cases etc.) made from the skins and/or fur of endangered or threatened animals.

Asian elephant ivory and whale teeth decorated with etchings (scrimshaw) or made into figurines (netsuke), curios, pendants, and other jewelry.

African elephant ivory, both raw and worked.

Sea turtle and some crocodile leather shoes, handbags, belts, wallets, luggage, and similar articles.

Sealskin toys, purses, wallets.

Whalebone and whale and walrus ivory.

Rescued too late - an elephant-foot footstool comprises part of an IFAW exhibit. (Photo: IFAW)

One of the more obvious and tasteless items sold abroad is a stool made from an elephant’s foot, cushioned with zebra hide.

“Many species are close to extinction, and many more may become endangered at a faster rate than ever before sometimes while the trade is still legal. Illegal trade is causing a decline in certain species, but the problem is that with globalization and economic growth trade has spread to different species sourced from all over the world. China’s middle class of potential consumers has grown to 250 million people in the last decade and is projected to double in another decade. So today’s legal wildlife trade can soon turn into tomorrow’s endangered species.

The illegal animal trade is a moving target. There are definitely areas where the situation has improved; elephant ivory poaching has decreased since the trade was banned in 1989, rhino horn poaching has gone down since major awareness efforts in 1993, but other animals like sharks are being hunted unsustainably now with some populations declining 80% in fifteen years. Tiger poaching is still a major problem and as some animals disappear new species replace them because there is a demand.”

According to the State Department of China, the United States is the second largest importer of illegal wildlife in the world. Knights attributes this to the countries’ wealth and ethnic diversity: “A lot of these trades are derived from specific areas and peoples of the world,” says Knights, “So while smuggled Russian caviar may be a rich Caucasian delicacy, shark fin soup is largely an East Asian dish. Rhino horn, tiger bone, bear bladder and sea horses are imported for Chinese health remedies, while sea turtle eggs is served in some Hispanic bars, and bush meat is served in some African restaurants.”

Sea horses are more appealing swimming in the ocean than in a pot. Rhino carcasses are left to rot for a horn that has not been proven to cure any illness. Massive flocks of colorful parrots are netted in the wild and only a few survive the trip out of the country hidden in tires and pipes. Protecting a habitat means nothing without protecting its wildlife. State parks exist all over the world, but they are meaningless if they are empty. The illegal wildlife trade needs to be stopped, and this is where WildAid comes in. As the only group that focuses on stopping the role of demand, they are protecting the parks and the animals that reside within them, too. Their slogan says it best: “when the buying stops, the killing can too.”

References:

- Shark Trust

- SeaShepherd (various Marine fish and mammals)

- White Shark Trust

- Shark Project

- Bear Bile Farming Info

- Earth Trust - Bear Farming

- Allied Effort to Save Other Primates

- MonkeyLand

- National Wildlife Federation

- Elephant Protection

- International Rhino Foundation

- Wildlife Trade Monitoring Network

- World Wildlife Fund

- The Humane Society of the United States

- Wildlife Conservation Society

- International Fund for Animal Welfare

- World Conservation Union

- Conservation International

- Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species

- Wildlife Protection Society of India

- Defenders of Wildlife

Algae colors green the waters of this Tennessee catfish farm. The best way to extract fuel from algae, however, may be through using a totally enclosed “bioreactor.” (Photo: USDA)

Didymosphenia geminata, microscopic algae once scarce, but now in many streams and rivers of North America (Photo: US EPA)

Algae are microscopic, single-celled plants, growing in an aqueous environment.

For growth algae make use of sunlight as energy source and simple inorganic nutrients, predominantly CO2, soluble nitrogen components and phosphates. For many years, there has been a theory that noxious flue gases produced by industries could be substantially reduced by using algae. The algal biomass produced can then be used for generating high-energy biofuel. In the case of the cement industry, the biofuel produced can be directly fired in captive power plants and kilns.

Characteristics of algae cultivation are:

- The productivity per area is 2 to 5 fold higher as compared with traditional agricultural crops and fast growing ‘energy crops.’

- Lower quality water can be used for growing algae, e.g. the effluent of biological waste water treatment facilities.

- Algal systems can remove CO2 (and NOx) from flue gases.

- Many algal species produce valuable products, such as colorants, polyunsaturated fatty acids and bioactive compounds. These ‘fine chemicals’ are applicable as a natural ingredient in food products, pharmaceuticals, food supplements and personal care products.

- After extraction of these valuable compounds the remaining biomass (approx. 80%) can be used for production of ‘green’ electricity and heat. Alternatively, microalgae can be used for the production of methylesterfuel (bio-diesel).

Finding renewable energy sources has been a top concern for many scientists around the world and algae based biofuel has emerged as a viable resource. At present there are two common methods for algae based biofuel production: open ponds and bioreactors. The major technical challenges of these systems are how to: sustain highest photosynthesis and biomass productivity, reduce cell damage by hydrodynamic stress, reduce costs in fabrication, installation, and maintenance, and increase the capability of the system to expand to an industrial scale.

From 1978 to 1996, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Fuels Development funded a program to develop renewable transportation fuels from algae. The main focus of the program, know as Aquatic Species Program (or ASP), was the production of biodiesel from high lipid-content algae grown in ponds utilizing waste CO2 from coal fired power plants. The study demonstrated that more than 300 species of algae were well suited to the task. Gaseous emission was pumped through the base of a pond and algae grown on the surface. The project was eventually abandoned because of the difficulty in harvesting algae and high cost of energy required to agitate the pond to ensure sufficient algal exposure to sunlight. As photosynthesis efficiency is driven by complex cellular mechanisms that depend on having just the right exposure to light, past algal systems grew to be complex and ultimately too expensive for most industries to contemplate. They took the form of huge, shallow ponds with extensive pumping and distribution mechanisms.

GreenFuel Technologies Corp., a Massachusetts based research company, working in collaboration with theMassachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), using the air-lift bioreactors for algal growth on flue gas, has succeeded in reducing the capital investment by streamlining the harvesting of algae, limiting the energy required to operate the system, automating many of the necessary controls (e.g., flow controllers and gas uptake), and minimizing the physical space required.

SCHEMATIC OF AN AIR LIFT BIOREACTOR

Solid arrows indicate the direction of the gas flow; open arrows indicate the direction of the liquid flow.

GreenFuel uses an implementation of an air-lift reactor (ALR), which is a type of pneumatic contacting device in which fluid circulation takes place in a defined cyclic pattern through channels built specifically for this purpose. The process, called photomodulation, rotates the algae in and out of the sunlight. On the basis of the ALR principles and the specific requirements of photosynthetic processes, a “triangular” ALR configuration was developed that is particularly suitable for algal growth. The GreenFuel bioreactor consists of a riser tube or channel, a gas separator, and a down comer tube or channel. The difference in the apparent fluid densities between the riser and down comer provides the driving force for liquid circulation. Air-lift reactors (ALRs) have great potential for industrial bioprocesses, because of the low level and homogeneous distribution of hydrodynamic shear.

In the GreenFuel Technologies beta system at MIT, a slipstream from the MIT Cogeneration Plant is passed directly from a sampling port on the stack into a bank of triangle-shaped bioreactors containing algae in a salt water growth medium. Each bioreactor is self-contained; the gas enters at the bottom two vertices, and makes a single pass though the tubular bioreactor before exiting at the top vertex. The bioreactor dimensions-approximately 8 feet tall by 6 feet long by several inches wide-are determined by the amount of time required for the gas to dissolve in the growth medium as it rises through the vertical and hypotenuse legs (The triangle design is patented by GreenFuel).

Greenfuel Technologies)

The GreenFuel team has been growing algae on the Cogen gases, and harvesting algae ‘crops’ daily. Algae reduced NOx day and night, regardless of temporal and weather conditions. The process is essentially an effect of the surface configuration of the algae cell walls. Even dead algae can reduce NOx up to 70 percent. The harvested algae can be used to generate biofuel products. A week-long evaluation by a third party called CK Environmental Inc. certified that over the seven-day test period, the GreenFuel beta system simultaneously removed 85.9 percent NOx (2.1 percent, regardless of weather conditions), and 82.3 percent CO2 (12.5 percent) on sunny days, or 50.1 percent CO2 (6.5 percent) on cloudy or rainy days. The testing methods conformed to EPA standards for measuring NOx and CO2 emissions.

The Academic and University Centre in Nove Hrady, Czech Republic developed a closed tubular photobioreactor. This “penthouse-roof” photobioreactor was based on solar concentrators (linear Fresnel lenses) mounted in a climate-controlled greenhouse on top of the laboratory complex combining features of indoor and outdoor cultivation units. The dual-purpose system was designed for algal biomass production in temperate climate zones under well-controlled cultivation conditions and for heating service water with surplus solar energy.

Greenshift Corporation

GreenShift Corporation has acquired rights to Ohio University’s patented cynaobacteria based bioreactor process for reducing greenhouse gases emissions from fossil-fuel combustion processes. Dr. David Bayless at OU designed a bioreactor based on a newly discovered iron-loving cyanobacterium (blue-green algae). In concept, this is very similar to GreenFuel Technology’s reactor. The algae grown in the bioreactor on 60 by 120-centimeter membranes of woven fibers resembling window screens interspersed between the Oak Ridge glow plates. Capillary action wicks water to the algae, fiber optic cables channel sunlight into the glow plates, and ducts bring in the hot flue gas. Spreading the cyanobacteria on membranes maximizes surface area for growth, minimizes water and optimizes the use of sunlight. The algae use the available carbon dioxide and water, giving off pure oxygen and water vapor in the process. The organisms also absorb nitrogen oxide and sulfur dioxide. A prototype is capable of handling 140 cubic meters of flue gas per minute, an amount equal to the exhaust from 50 cars or a 3 megawatt power plant. Once the algae grow to maturity, they fall to the bottom of the bioreactor and are used as feedstock and fertilizers. The biomass can also be utilized for producing biodiesel.

Future research in this area would involve determination of the operational and economic feasibility of such systems for organic biomass production from the viewpoint of cement industry. This would lead to sequestration of CO2 produced from cement manufacturing and production of biofuel as an alternate fuel.

References:

Novakovic, G.V., Kim, Y., Wu, X., Berzin, I., and Merchuk, J.C., 2005. Air-Lift Bioreactors for Algal Growth on Flue Gas: Mathematical Modeling and Pilot-Plant Studies. Ind. Eng. Chem. Res. Vol. 44, pp. 6154-6163.

Sheehan, J., Dunahay, T., Beneman, J. and Roessler,P., 1998. A Look Back at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Aquatic Species Program Biodiesel from Algae. U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Fuels Development.

De Boer, A.J., and van Doorn, J., 1998. Combined production of chemicals and biomass with microalgae in a closed photobioreactor. ECN Contribution to the 10th European Conference: ‘Biomass for energy and industry’. ECN RX-98-003, pp. 27-29.

Reith, J.H., van Doorn, J., Mur, L.R., Kalwij, R., Bakema,G. and van der Lee, G., 2000. Sustainable co-production of natural fine chemicals and biofuels from microalgae. Conference Biomass for Energy and Industry, Sevilla, June 2000.

Bayless, D.J., et al., 2002. Enhanced Practical Photosynthetic CO2 Mitigation (http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/proceedings/01/carbon_seq/5a4.pdf)

Masojídek, J., Papácek, S., Sergejevová, M., Jirka, V., Cervený, J., Kunc, J., Korecko, J., Verbovikova, O., Kopecký, J., `tys, D. and Torzillo, G., 2003. A closed solar photobioreactor for cultivation of microalgae under supra-high irradiance: basic design and performance. Journal of Applied Phycology, Vol. 15, pp. 239-248.

Website References:

GreenFuel: Using Algae to Capture Emissions

Vision: The World Student Community for Sustainable Development, April 22, 2005

Greenshift Licenses Bioreactor Technology

Green Car Congress, December 12, 2005

Beta Test Set for Emission-Fighting Algae Bioreactor

Power Engineering International, November 2004

Blue Green Acres

Scientific American, August 29, 2005

Algae Emissions Reduction Concept Shows New Promise

Electric Light & Power, March 2005

About the Author: Ramesh K. Suri is the Joint President for Alternative Fuels & Raw Materials Business Develoment at ACC Ltd., reporting to the ACC’s Managing Director. After completing his studies in Chemical Engineering at IIT Delhi in 1970, Suri joined ACC Ltd. and has held positions in the areas of plant operations, industrial engineering, design & construction, commissioning, project management, administration and consultancy services for cement plants within India and abroad. Suri has served on various national and international committees including the Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate (APP), Regional CDM Initiative APAC, and the Thematic Advisory Group of TERI.

What impact does deforestation, desertification and farming methods have on global warming?

There is broad agreement about the behavior of the global mean temperature.

While there is agreement regarding the historical data, that does not mean that the resulting observations are very solid. The point of the following tables is simply to render transparent the global temperature records underlying most global warming observations and predictions, and comment on what they may or may not indicate.

GLOBAL MEAN ANNUAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE Per Year from 1900 through 2005

Source: UK Meteorological Office

The tables above and below this paragraph are the records commonly displayed by the IPCC. Interestingly, the record is essentially flat since 1995. The modest spike in 1998 is commonly associated with an El Nino. The temperature records reflected in these two tables are completely consistent with a rapid rise from 1976 to 1986 and a leveling off since. This would be more like what is referred to as a regime change than a response to global greenhouse warming.

GLOBAL MEAN ANNUAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE Per Year from 1995 through 2005

Source: UK Meteorological Office

When considering global temperature trends it is important to take into account uncertainty bands. When this is done, as the table below indicates, there is no basis for claiming an significant global warming trend since 1986, though there might very well be one.

GLOBAL MEAN ANNUAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE WITH UNCERTAINTY BANDS Per Year from 1855 through 2005

It is sometimes claimed that the recent warming period involves much more rapid warming than the mean warming for the past century or so. This is, of course, true of any warming period in a record that includes periods of cooling as well as periods of relatively stationary temperature. For example, the rate of warming during 1910-1940 is somewhat more rapid than the recent rate. More over, if one looks for short periods, there is no difficulty in finding rates that are many times the rate over the last century.

There are only a few groups that compile records of the global mean temperature, and at least two of these groups are strongly committed to the popular view of global warming. On the three tables below, the planets yearly fluctuations in surface temperature are shown against the average measurements from 1961 to 1990 in the case of the first table, and 1951 to 1980 in the 2nd and 3rd tables. Each of these groups of researchers have used the same data, in a range of years which begins between 1851 and 1880, and ends in 2006.

GLOBAL ANNUAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES FROM THE 1961 TO 1990 AVERAGE Per Year From 1850 through 2005

Note: The 95% confidence limits for the annual global estimate are shown (black error bars). Sources: NOAA/NCDC, HadCRUT, and NASA GISS

Of the three groups compiling each of the above graphs, at least two of these groups are strongly committed to the popular view of global warming. All the groups use the same data, but differ a bit in how they treat the data. Reassuringly, the records look pretty much the same. Two groups (Hansen’s at GISS and NOAA) claim that 2005 was a record breaker, but by a statistically insignificant amount, and clearly the difference between this result and the others is well within the uncertainty as displayed by the error bars. The table from NOAA shows a total warming of only .45C over the length of the record.

The matter of error bars is not without interest. Hansen doesn’t show any. However, the error bars in NCDC analysis are noticeably larger than those from the UK. As best I can tell, the NCDC uses stricter quality control, leading them to reject data from obviously suspect stations (like those in rapidly urbanizing regions). The UK, on the other hand, keeps these stations, and “corrects” them in a largely subjective manner. Thus, the UK has a larger number of points going into the mean, many of which have been “corrected” to look like the mean. This leads to an artificially small error bar.

In all cases, the error bar refers simply to the scatter of points going into the mean. In the next three tables, the late Stan Grotch of the Livermore Radiation Lab showed the nature and implications on the error bars of this scatter.

DEVIATIONS OF ANNUAL MEAN TEMPERATURE FROM LONG-TERM AVERAGE Per Year From 1851 to 1984

Data points averaged to obtain time record of global mean temperature. Note points range from less than -2C to more than +2C. Source: S.L. Grotch, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory)

Note that the error bars (below tables) are based solely on the scatter of the individual station data points (above table). They don’t include any information about other sources of uncertainty such as changes in land usage, changes in instrumentation, etc.

GLOBALLY AVERAGED DEVIATIONS FROM AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PLOTTED ON A SCALE RELEVANT TO THE INDIVIDUAL STATION DEVIATIONS Per Year from 1851 to 1984

Each value here is based on the average of all the points for each year in the previous figure. Source: S.L. Grotch, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory)

Another major problem in interpretation arises from the existence of natural internal variability. This is a frequently misunderstood issue. The point is that the earth’s global mean temperature varies even in the absense of any external forcing at all. This is an inevitable property of a turbulent fluid where the greenhouse effect (mostly due to water vapor and clouds) varies dramatically with location. Moreover, the ocean is continually moving in and out of equilibrium with the surface for a variety of reasons. An example of such behavior is El Nino. However, there are similar phenomena in other regions.

GLOBALLY AVERAGED DEVIATIONS FROM AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PLOTTED ON A SCALE STRETCHED TO FILL THE GRAPH Per Year from 1851 to 1984

Each value here is based on the curve in the previous figure stretched to fill the graph. Note that range is now about -0.6C to +.3C. Source: S.L. Grotch, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory

There is argument as to the significance of natural internal variability, but it is clear from the temperature record that changes of 0.5C over short periods are not particularly uncommon. Natural internal variability, or “noise” in systems such as the earth are generally reflected in temperature observations. Finally, it is characteristic of noise that it is random. Data indicates natural internal variability or “noise” should be represented by a horizontal band of width 0.4 - 0.5 centigrade. The below table shows that it is rare so far to find that the noise band and the sampling error bars don’t overlap.

OBSERVATIONS VS. INTERNAL VARIABILITY Per Year From 1851 to 2000

We have not given much attention, so far, to systematic errors due to instrument changes. Two warrant some mention. Over much of the world, traditional thermometers have been replaced by electronic thermometers, which have much shorter response times. This appears to have contributed a bit to recent warming. Perhaps more serious are problems with pre World War I ocean measurements. Note that 70% of the earth’s surface is ocean. Crudely speaking, before WWI, temperatures were measured by collecting sea water in a canvas bucket, and measuring the temperature. After that, the temperature was taken by measuring the temperature in the engine intake.

In the late ’80’s there was a cooperative program between the late Prof. Reginald Newell at MIT and the UK Meteorological Office to intercalibrate the two methods. The resulting paper showed ocean temperatures about 0.2 centigrade warmer (for the pre WWI period) than those given in the paper that finally appeared. Professor Newell was extremely upset with the change, since he could not find out what the basis for it was. Such a change accounts for about 0.14 centigrade of the century long term trend commonly cited.

The point of all this is not to claim that there has been no warming. After all, the system’s temperature is always varying. However, when dealing with small temperature changes in a turbulent system, there is little appropriateness to dogmatism. Perhaps the most important message one gets from the data is that the change in temperature has been on the order of 0.5 centigrade, and the main question should be whether we have any solid basis for considering such a change to be large or small, serious or inconsequential.

About the Author: Richard S. Lindzen is the Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Atmospheric Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology(http://web.mit.edu).

Central Asia A place of myth, legend & lore

Central Asia’s power sector is just beginning to be developed. Each of the Central Asian economies is hungry for greater power generation - and each one is facing big obstacles on the path to further growth and development of the sector. Probably the most significant development in Central Asia’s power grid is in Tajikistan.

TAJIKISTAN’S ENERGY PROJECTS

Tajikistan’s hydro resources are unique and top-ranked. Electricity production for 15 years of independence in average amounted to 17 billion kWh. Their aggregate installed capacity of hydropower stations in 2006 amounts to 4,090 MW.

According to the Tajikistan’s National Strategy for Energy Sector Development (2006-2015) their electricity output is estimated to reach 26.4 billion kWh by 2010 and 35.0 billion kWh by 2015.

TAJIKISTAN’S ELECTRICITY EXPORT POTENTIAL (expressed in megawatt-years)

According to the National Strategy for Energy Sector Development (2006-2015) the electricity output is estimated at 3.0 gigawatt-years (gWy) by 2010 and 9.1 gWy by 2015

Opportunities for new hydroelectric power generation projects exist on the following rivers: Vakhsh, Pyandj, Amudarya, Zerafshan, Surkhob and Obi Hingoh.

Development of the potential on Vakhsh River is estimated at 9,195 MW with annual electricity generation at 36,930 million kWh. At present only 3,835 MW are utilized. Hydropower stations offering an additional aggregated installed capacity of 4,490 MW are under construction, and hydropower stations with another 850 MW installed capacity are under design.

HYDROELECTRIC PROJECTS ON TAJIKISTAN’S VAKHSH RIVER

Projects already in progress will triple the hydroelectric output on Tajikistan’s Vakhsh River, to 9.1 gigawatts.

The investor behind the Sangtuda-I project is the monopoly power company of Russia, Unified Energy System (http://www.rao-ees.ru).

The investor behind the Rogun project is the largest aluminum producer in Russia, Russian Aluminum, (http://www.rusal.com).

The investor behind the Sangtuda-II project is the Government of Iran.

Kairakkum, Golovnaya and Varzob Cascade Hydropower Plant Modernization Projects:

Barqi Tojik’s Kairakkum hydropower station (126 MW) located on the Syrdarya River in northern Tajikistan, and Golovnaya (240 MW) and Varzob Cascade hydropower stations (a total of 25 MW) in southern Tajikistan need to be rehabilitated to increase utilization and efficiency. Rehabilitation would include primarily the turbines, runners, substations, and ancillary equipment, such as pumps, compressors, and some piping. With the rehabilitation of the hydropower plants, capacity would increase to 162 MW for the Kairakkum station and 270 MW for the Golovnaya station. Likewise, the additional power generated per year would be 259 GWh, 216 GWh, and 40 GWh from the three hydropower facilities, respectively. The Kairakkum and Varzob Cascade rehabilitations are expected to cost a total of $43 million and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development is expected to fund these rehabilitations as a package. The Golovnaya rehabilitation is estimated to cost $34 million, and the Asian Development Bank is expected to provide financing.

New Export-Based Power Generation Plants:

The objective of the project is to increase the supply of export-based power generation by identifying from 300 to 1,000 MW of new hydroelectricity in Tajikistan at new sites or by completing partially completed installations. This new electricity will then be exported to Afghanistan and Pakistan. The existence of a transmission corridor makes it feasible for the new electricity supply to reach its markets. The project includes: identifying the criteria by which the new generation would be ranked and selected; the design and construction of the new reservoirs and generation installations; and the new transmission lines to connect to the transmission corridor. It could also involve the negotiation of new electricity sales agreements with Afghanistan and Pakistan that recognize the long-term nature of the new supply before it becomes available. Total project costs are estimated at around $700 million.

TAJIKISTAN’S POTENTIAL NEW POWER GENERATION PLANTS

Along with Norway and Sweden, Tajikistan is a country relatively small in population that has an enormous hydroelectric resource.

Export of Available Seasonal Electricity to Afghanistan:

Tajikistan has a well-developed sector for the generation of hydropower from existing dams and other structures and seasonally available surplus power. Afghanistan, which lies immediately to the south of Tajikistan, has suppressed electricity demand and currently supplies much of its demand through costly decentralized diesel-electric generation based on imported diesel fuel. This project consists of a transmission line (220 KV) and connection with the appropriate substation in Afghanistan’s northeast transmission grid. The attractiveness of the project stems from the ability to implement it in the short term and the gap between the cost of hydroelectric power and diesel-generated power. Total project costs are estimated at $35 million.

KAZAKHSTAN’S ENERGY PROJECTS

North-South 500kV Transmission Project:

The existing North-South (N/S) electricity transmission lines are insufficient to meet growing domestic and anticipated export demand. The new 500kV N/S line will enable an increased volume of electricity transfer from generating plants in northern Kazakhstan to markets in southern Kazakhstan. Additionally, this will expand the Central Asia electricity marketing options through the expansion of a Kazakhstan leg of a new Central Asia North-South power transmission system. The loan for this project has already been approved by the World Bank. The total amount of financing is about $326 million. The project includes 3 phases.

The Music of Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan : Moinak Hydropower Plant:

The Moinak Hydroelectric Power Project is located in South-Eastern Kazakhstan on the upper reach of the Charyn River, approximately 170 km East of Almaty. A number of studies have been undertaken in the past to investigate the hydropower potential of the Charyn River, and in 1985, construction on the head works and the dam for the Moinak project started. However, due to the collapse of the Soviet Union and the subsequent suspension of project funding, construction was halted in 1992. The total cost of the entire project is estimated at $310 million. The majority of the costs will be financed by the Government of Kazakhstan, with funding apparently being drawn from the national pension fund, which is reported to have accumulated more than 460 billion tenge ($3.5 billion).

Export of 4,000 MW of Coal Fired Power & 1,500kV DC Transmission Line:
Voracious growth has created an unprecedented demand for energy in China. In order to meet the growing power supply deficit, China is actively looking for innovative supply solutions. Both China and Kazakhstan are taking steps to meet this looming demand as evidenced by their decision to commence deliberations on the construction of a huge power station at the Ekibastuz coal field in Pavlodar Region. This power will be exported to eastern China through a 4,500 km 1,500 kV DC transmission line, with an expected capacity of 5,500 MW.

KYRGYZSTAN’S ENERGY PROJECTS

Datka-Kemin 500KV Transmission Line & Substations Project:

A new 400 km, 500kV transmission line and one substation will be designed and built to increase the internal power transmission capacity of Kyrgyzstan. This will link abundant generation capacity and potential in the south of the country with the energy deficient north. Additionally, this will expand the Central Asia electricity marketing options through the construction of the Kyrgyzstan leg of a new North-South power transmission system. The transmission line will require building, along new rights of way, steel structures with steel-reinforced conductor wires to carry a maximum load of 1,500 MW. At the north end, the line will connect to the 500/220 kV Kemin Substation, whose implementation is included in this project. At the south end, the transmission line will connect to the planned 500 KV Datka Substation and a substation that is part of the Southern Kyrgyzstan Transmission Upgrade Project, for which USTDA is funding a feasibility study. The estimated investment for the project totals about $170 million in line construction and about $20 million in Kemin Substation construction.

Rehabilitation of Uch-Kurgan Hydropower Plant:

The Uch-Kurgan hydropower plant is the first plant of the Naryn Cascade. Construction began in 1956 and was completed in 1962. Its installed capacity of 180 MW (4 units of 45 MW each) averages an annual generation of 899 million kWh. As a result of 40 years of operation and a lack of funding for adequate maintenance in the years following independence, Uch-Kurgan HPP’s primary equipment, auxiliary equipment, control equipment and technical systems all need significant repair or replacement. Lack of action will result in further decrease of installed capacity, leading eventually to HPP shutdown. The cost of rehabilitating Uch-Kurgan is estimated at between $27 million and $35 million.

220 kV Overhead Transmission Line Rehabilitation:

At the present time, power to the South of Kyrgyzstan is supplied through a network of 110-220 kV transmission lines. Those lines also pass through the Uzbek Republic, which leads to security issues for reliable power supply. In addition to the security issue, those lines and substations are overloaded by 25- 30% in the wintertime when peak demand is three times that of the peak summertime load. The transmission company has begun the South Kyrgyzstan Electrical Improvement Program to rehabilitate and strengthen the transmission grid in this region. The first phase of the project involved the construction of the 131 km Alay-Aigultash 220 kV transmission line, the construction of the 220 kV Aigultash Substation and rehabilitation of the 220 kV Alay and 110 kV Batken substations. The second phase of the project involves the construction of a 500/220 kV substation at Datka, with interconnection to the existing 500 kV O/H Transmission Line and the 220 kV network and replacement of the 220 kV network, which is old and in need of rehabilitation. Total costs for this project are estimated at $70 million. Financing is in place.

Naryn Cascade Hydropower Projects:

This project covers the study and promotion of the integrated development of the hydroelectric resources of the Naryn River. There is significant interest within the Government of Kyrgyzstan and others to design and build five or more hydroelectric plant sites with a total generating capacity of approximately 350 megawatts. A concession will be offered for the development of the five sites for the production and export of electricity under the terms and conditions of a negotiated concession agreement. Funding amounts have yet to be determined.

Taliban, by Ahmed Rashid Coexisting with Electrification?

AFGHANISTAN’S ENERGY PROJECTS

220 kV Transmission Line from Sherberghan to the Turkmenistan Border:

At present, Afghanistan’s power demand is being supplied by plants run almost exclusively on diesel. Progress is being made by the governments of Afghanistan and Turkmenistan on energy trade between the two countries. This project is a 220kV interconnection with Turkmenistan that has been identified by USAID as a means to facilitate additional import of power into Afghanistan. This would be an adjunct to the North East Transmission System (NETS), which is currently being designed and built. ADB and others are funding other project components to provide for the transmission of electricity from the north into Kabul. The transmission infrastructure (lines & corresponding sub-stations at different locations) requires repair, and rehabilitation, as well as greenfield project development. Total funding requirements are being established for this component of the NETS project.

Export of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan Electricity to Afghanistan and Pakistan:

The project addresses the seasonal surpluses of hydroelectricity in Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan and the establishment of a transmission corridor that would export this surplus electricity to Afghanistan and Pakistan. The total surplus electricity supply from the three Central Asian countries can meet a significant part of the demand in Afghanistan and Pakistan. For this supply to meet the demand an electricity transmission corridor (500 KV) needs to be constructed by linking segments of existing lines with new construction. The corridor will originate at a connection with the Kazakhstan grid at the border with Kyrgyzstan and connect to the Pakistan grid at a yet to be determined location. Total costs of the project are estimated at between $600 million and $1 billion.

CONCLUSION

* Power generation cost in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan is lower than in its neighboring countries in South Asia (Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India);

* Host governments support export based projects, and in some countries domestic demand for electricity is significantly lower than generating capacity;

* U.S.-based power sector companies are absent in the energy sector in Central Asia, while companies from Russia, China and Iran are actively involved;

* Multilateral banks recognize and support export based strategies;

* In general, the investment climate in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan is positive, but remains challenging.

THE NATIONS OF CENTRAL ASIA

(Map: U.S. Central Intelligence Agency)

About the Author: Gordon Feller is the CEO of Urban Age Institute (www.UrbanAge.org). During the past twenty years he has authored more than 500 magazine articles, journal articles or newspaper articles on the profound changes underway in politics, economics, and ecology - with a special emphasis on sustainable development. Gordon is the editor of Urban Age Magazine, a unique quarterly which serves as a global resource and which was founded in 1990. He can be reached at GordonFeller@UrbanAge.org and he is available for speaking to your organization about the issues raised in this and his other numerous articles published in EcoWorld.

Narora Atomic Power Station, Units 1 & 2 220 Megawatts each, Bulandshahr, Uttar Pradesh (map of all India’s nuclear installations)

Rajasthan Atomic Power Station, Units 3 & 4 220 Megawatts each, Chittorgarh, Uttar Pradesh (map of all India’s nuclear installations)

With a growing economy, an increasing population, mounting energy demand, limited availability of conventional sources, and a strong consensus for environmental protection, India is harnessing energy ranging from jatropha biodiesel to atomic power.

Efficient, reliable and environmentally sustainable energy supplied to each household at the least possible cost is a dream of India’s government. While successive federal governments have been seeking energy security by 2012 for India, the current Scientist-President Abdul Kalam goes further to prescribe “Energy Independence” by 2032.

Energy independence is now India’s first and highest priority. To address this critical challenge, the base of the country’s energy supply system has steadily shifted from non-renewable to renewable sources as well as towards development of nuclear energy sources. Is India taking the right path to meet the energy requirements by emphasizing nuclear energy? Without nuclear energy, are there enough alternative energy sources to limited fossil fuels to meet future demand?

India, hosting fifteen percent of the world population and on track to replace China as the most populous country on Earth, ranks sixth in the world in terms of energy production. Experts believe demand for energy will soon surely be a defining characteristic of India’s life in the new millennium as India’s economy continues to grow at an average of 8 percent per year.

Though commercial primary energy consumption in India has grown by about 700 percent in the last four decades, India’s present level of energy consumption, by world standards, remains very low. The current per capita commercial primary energy consumption in India is about 350 Kilograms of Oil Equivalents per year (kgeo/yr) which is well below that of world average of 1,690 kgeo/yr. By 2010 per capita energy consumption is expected to increase around 450 kgoe/yr. Compared to this, the energy consumption in China is 1,200 kgeo/yr, Japan is over 4,050 kgeo/yr, South Korea is 4,275 kgeo/yr, the US is 7,850, and the OECD countries together average 4,670.

INDIA’S PRESENT ENERGY BASE

Coal has been and is the primary energy source in India as it accounts for 55 percent of India’s energy production (see Table-1). This abundant fossil fuel, which within India accounts for 247.85 billion tonnes of reserves as of 2005, can last for some 80 years at the current level of consumption. If domestic coal production continues to grow at the current rate of 5 percent per year, however, India’s total extractable coal reserves would run out in around 40 years.

Table 1: INDIA’S ENERGY CONSUMPTION (HISTORY)

(Data units “million tons equivalent in oil” or “MTEO”) Source: BP Statistical Year Review 2005

With only half a percent of global reserves within India, oil nonetheless constitutes over 35 percent of the primary energy consumption in India. India’s present level of oil consumption is about 114 million metric tons of oil equivalent out of which India produces 25 percent i.e., 29 million metric Tons (MMT). India’s per capita consumption of oil and gas is one-third the global average. The reserves of crude oil are merely 739 MMT, which can sustain the current level of production for 22 years.

India’s Production of natural gas, which was almost negligible at the time of independence in 1949, in 2006 is at the level of around 87 million standard cubic meters per day (MMSCMD). Natural gas constitutes about 9 percent of India’s energy production, as compared to about 25 percent in the world. India already imports 20 per cent of its natural gas and this is predicted to go up to about 75 per cent by 2020.

INDIA’S ENERGY FUTURE

To encourage next generation fuels and increased use of renewable sources of energy, India is probably the only country in the world with a full-fledged ministry dedicated to the production of energy from renewable energy sources, the Ministry of Non-Conventional Energy Sources (http://mnes.nic.in/). As prescribed by the President of India, power generated through renewable energy technologies is targeted to reach 20 to 25 percent of total energy generated compared to the present 5 percent (See Table-2). The government is promoting the use of ethanol made from sugar cane and bio-diesel extracted from trees that are common in many parts of India, such as Jatropha, Karanja and Mahua. India’s Ministry of Non-Conventional Energy Sources has put forward a goal for the nation to produce 60 million tons per year of bio-fuel.

Table 2: INDIA’S ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PROJECTION)

(Data units “million tons equivalent in oil” or “MTEO”) Source: Draft Report of the Expert Committee on Integrated Energy Policy, Planning Commission, Government of India

India to-date has a total installed capacity of 870 megawatts based on biomass combustion, gasification and biomass cogeneration. Over 55 megawatts of the total was set up in the country just in 2005. India’s government is already promoting biomass based technologies in selected villages for meeting energy requirements, such as cooking, motive power and electricity generation under various schemes. Biomass gasifier based electricity generation projects adding a total capacity of 423 megawatts were sanctioned during 2005-06 to states like Tamil Nadu, Arunachal Paradesh, and Pondicherry under the Biomass Gasification Programme.

By mid-2005, India’s installed capacity of wind power had reached 3,740 megawatts. The present exploitable potential has been estimated at 14.5 gigawatts, when taking into consideration the grid constraints in the potential states. India’s wind power projects are mostly set up as commercial projects through private investments. According to a report by the American Wind Energy Association (http://www.awea.org/) India currently ranks fifth in wind energy production, which is first place among developing countries. Under the wind resource assessment programme of the Ministry of Non-Conventional Energy Sources, so far a total of 211 sites have been identified in 13 States and Union Territories that are considered suitable for setting up wind power projects.

India is endowed with enormous economically exploitable hydro potential, assessed at about 84 gigawatts. To-date only around 18 percent of India’s hydro-electric potential has been harnessed. The sharply falling share of hydro in total energy production - from 46 percent in the 1970s to about 25 percent today - is cited as a serious problem confronting future development of hydro power. Opposition to large hydro infrastructure projects has been intensified because of the Indian government’s poor track record of resettlement and rehabilitation of the people displaced by these projects. Currently this opposition has effectively put a halt to future projects.

Rajasthan Atomic Power Station New Units Under Construction

NUCLEAR POWER
IN INDIA

While India is amongst the top 10 countries of the world in terms of production of electricity by hydro, coal, oil and gas, it is nowhere near the top 10 with respect to nuclear power generation.

In spite of India becoming the sixth nation to become armed with nuclear weapons, after the 1998 nuclear tests, the contribution of nuclear power to India’s overall power generation is negligible, even less than what wind energy generates.

Since the much debated high profile July 18 2005 Indo-US Joint Statement on civilian nuclear cooperation in Washington last year, there has been a renewed interest on nuclear energy put forward by the pro-nuclear lobby in India.

From the perspective of India’s government, Indo-US cooperation will give new life to its nuclear program that has been handicapped by limitations of technology and fuel. While Western countries - with the exception of France which is unabashedly pro-nuclear power - are hesitantly moving towards further development of nuclear energy, the developing countries, especially India and China, are quickly gearing up to add nuclear energy to feed their rapidly growing economies. According to official announcements, China will be adding 40 gigawatts of nuclear power in the next 20 years while India adds 20 gigawatts.

“It is perfectly clear that atomic energy can be used for peaceful purposes.” Jawaharlal Nehru (on right), 1954

Historically, development of India’s nuclear technology has treaded carefully between the elusive thin line of civilian and military purposes.

Jawaharlal Nehru, the then Prime Minister of India said in Lok Sabha (India’s Lower House of Parliament) on May 10, 1954, “It is perfectly clear that atomic energy can be used for peaceful purposes…it may take some years before it can be used more or less economically.” Experts believe that nuclear power, theoretically, offers India the most potent means to achieve long-term energy security. In practical terms, however, nuclear power may lack the logical preconditions, at least for India, to become their major source of independent energy.

The Department of Atomic Energy (DAE), (http://www.dae.gov.in/) under the direct control of the Prime Minister of India has formulated an approach and perspective on the nuclear energy resource. Their three stage nuclear program calls for setting up of natural uranium fuelled Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs) in the first stage, Fast Breeder Reactors utilizing a uranium-plutonium fuel cycle in the second stage, and Breeder Reactors utilizing thorium fuel in the third stage. India’s natural uranium deficiency has resulted in a commitment to this ambitious, technically challenging three-stage program designed to exploit the country’s thorium reserves, which at an estimated 290,000 metric tons are the second largest in the world.

India’s Coalition for Nuclear Disarmament & Peace

According to the Indian government’s official view, nuclear power for civil use is well established in India. Its civil nuclear strategy has been directed towards complete independence in the nuclear fuel cycle. This self-sufficiency extends from uranium exploration and mining through fuel fabrication, heavy water production, reactor design and construction, to reprocessing and waste management. The Atomic Energy Establishment was set up at Trombay in 1957 and renamed as Bhaba Atomic Research Centre (BARC) (http://www.barc.ernet.in/) ten years later. The first PHWR, the Rawatbhata-1 that had Canada’s Douglas Point reactor as a reference unit, was built as a collaborative venture between Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd (http://www.aecl.ca/site3.aspx) and the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd (NPCIL) (http://www.npcil.nic.in/). It commissioned in 1973 and was duplicated Subsequent indigenous PHWR development has been based on these units. The Rawatbhata-2 that commissioned in 1981 was also built by Canada. The NPCIL is responsible for design, construction, commissioning and operation of thermal nuclear power plants. The ten 220 MWe PHWRs (202 MWe each) were indigenously designed and constructed by NPCIL, based on Canadian design.

Table 3: INDIA’S NUCLEAR REACTORS - CURRENTLY OPERATING

Today 3,360 megawatts of India’s electricity capacity is nuclear. Source: Nuclear Power Corporation of India

There are 15 nuclear power reactors in operation in India, 13 of which are PHWRs (See Table-3). Since 1969, when India’s first nuclear reactor was commissioned for power generation, the total amount of power generation till 2005 is peeked at 3,360 megawatts. Among these PHWRs, the RAPS-1 reactor in Rajasthan has been virtually non-operational since its commissioning in December 1973. In addition, eight nuclear power reactors are currently under construction, five of which are PHWRs (See Table-4). Their total amount of power generation is expected to be 3,920 megawatts. There are 8 reactors to be established in the near future adding another 6,800 megawatts of capacity (See Table-5). Between 2010 and 2020, construction of four 220 megawatt PHWRs, ten 700 megawatt PHWRs, three 500 megawatt FBRs and up to six 1,000 megawatt VVERs is projected, adding about 20,000 megawatts, half from PHWRs. India has achieved maturity in the first stage of this program, construction of PHWRs. The beginning of the second stage of the program has been made with the commencement of construction of a 500 MW Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) at Kalpakkam, Tamil Nadu in 2003. The third stage of the program will be launched after a sizeable base capacity has been built of the second stage reactors.

The two Tarapur 150 megawatt Boiling Water Reactors (BWRs) built by GE on a turnkey contract before the advent of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty were originally 200 megawatts but were de-rated due to recurrent problems. They have been using imported enriched uranium. However, late in 2004 Russia deferred to the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group and declined to supply further uranium for them. Then in March 2006 Russia agreed to resume providing a fuel supply.

Table 4: INDIA’S NUCLEAR REACTORS - UNDER CONSTRUCTION 2006

India is adding 3,128 megawatts of nuclear power, nearly doubling their output. Source: Nuclear Power Corporation of India

Russia is supplying the country’s first large nuclear power plant, comprising two VVER-1000 (V-392) reactors, under a Russian-financed US$ 3 billion contract. The units are being built by NPCIL. Russia will supply all the enriched fuel, though India will reprocess it and keep the plutonium. The first unit is due to be commissioned late in 2007. These are apart from India’s 3-stage plan for nuclear power and are simply to increase generating capacity more rapidly.

In 2005 four sites were approved for eight new reactors. Two of the sites - Kakrapar and Rawatbhata, are to have 700 megawatt indigenous PHWR units, another is to have imported 1,000 megawatt light water reactors alongside the two being constructed by Russia at Kudankulam, and the fourth site is greenfield for 1,000 megawatt LWR units - Jaitapur in the Konkan region. Acquisition of any further light water reactors depends upon international political approvals.

Table 5: INDIA’S NUCLEAR REACTORS NEW SITES APPROVED 2006

India has already approved construction of new nuclear reactors adding another 6.8 gigawatts. Source: Nuclear Power Corp., India

India’s long-standing civilian nuclear plans call for extensive reprocessing of spent fuel from current reactors to harvest plutonium. The plutonium would then be used in a new generation of reactors to breed uranium-233 from blankets of thorium that would surround the plutonium fuel. Many decades into the future, the dream is to have a thorium-based fuel cycle that would ensure India’s energy independence into the distant future. However, anti nuclear experts believe that the long-term nuclear energy strategy is so technologically and economically dubious that no outside observers think it is viable.

Despite concerns against nuclear energy coming from the anti-nuclear establishment as well as civil society organizations in India, today there is a consensus across the major political parties that given India’s existing and future energy needs, nuclear power provides a potentially attractive alternative. But nearly 60 years after its inception, the nuclear establishment in India has failed to deliver what the pro-nuclear lobby had promised. At this point, even if a 20-fold increase takes place in India’s nuclear power capacity by 2031-32, the contribution of nuclear energy to India’s energy mix is, at best, expected to be 5-6 percent.

In 1954, India’s Atomic Energy Commission declared that nuclear plants would provide 8,000 megawatts of electricity by 1980-81. Yet by 1970, only 420 megawatts of electricity were coming from nuclear plants. In 1971, Vikram Sarabhai, the chairman of India’s Atomic Energy Committee sought to bring Indian nuclear planning down to earth and scaled back projections, saying that by 1980-81, India would be producing 2,700 megawatts of electricity from nuclear plants. Thirty-five years later Indian nuclear plants are producing roughly 3,360 MW of electricity. But undaunted, the Indian pro-nuclear lobby now proclaims that India will produce 24,000 MW of nuclear power by 2010 and 50,000 MW of electricity from nuclear plants by the year 2030!

Nuclear Fuel Bundles

The fact remains that despite its great size, India has the misfortune to have been poorly endowed with natural uranium. It has been estimated that these modest reserves of about 70,000 metric tons will suffice to produce no more than approximately 420 gigawatt-years of electric power, if used in the PHWRs currently operating or under construction. On the other hand people won’t let the government dig new uranium mines, so even these modest reserves may never be fully exploited.

India still faces severe challenges regarding the operational safety of all kinds of nuclear installations, from uranium mines to nuclear power stations. While the government boasts that the management and disposal of waste has been carried out fairly satisfactorily, there remain severe criticisms on the over all activities of nuclear energy. Public protests against Uranium Corporation of India Ltd’s (UCIL) (http://www.ucil.gov.in/) have prevented it from opening up any new mine since 1985.

In last six months in 2004, UCIL has tried thrice to set up new uranium mines in Andhra Pradesh, Meghalaya and Jharkhand but hasn’t got permission anywhere.

The Andhra Pradesh and Meghalaya governments have agreed to UCIL’s proposal in principle, but have withheld permission because of public pressure and nuclear activist campaigns focusing on UCIL’s poor safety record in Jaduguda in Jharkhand.

Independent studies have alleged that irresponsible handling of uranium ore had put some 50,000 people in Jaduguda at risk and caused genetic deformities in the area. Though Domiasat village in Meghalaya’s West Khasi Hills contains India’s largest and richest uranium reserve, UCIL officials are not welcomed by the indigenous communities in the Domiasat.

There are also serious problems to do with treating and disposing of the large volumes of highly radioactive waste generated not only by nuclear reactors but also by plants that extract plutonium or produce nuclear fuel. There is also the question of cost of decommissioning nuclear reactors after their useful life. Safety of nuclear reactors has also become an issue of concern.

The Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (AERB) (http://www.aerb.gov.in/) had revealed about 130 incidents where safety had been compromised in various nuclear reactors, particularly Narora 1 and 2 and Kaiga. Also, there is a tremendous pressure on nuclear reactors safety from outside like terrorists attacks.

The Coalition of Nuclear Disarmament and Peace (CNDP) (http://www.cndpindia.org/), a coalition of scientists, educationists, human rights activists, civil society organizations and so on, constituted in 2000 in response to nuclear weaponisation by India and Pakistan, calls for total nuclear disarmament in India as well as in the rest of the world. The CNDP does not accept the argument for nuclear energy put forward by atomic scientists as well as decision makers. While the option for nuclear energy is very expensive, the Indian government has restored faith in the DAE by allocating huge investment by ignoring various social issues like education, health etc.

President of India Dr. A.P.J. Abdul Kalam (2nd from left), visiting an IITF exhibit in New Delhi in 2003.

Developing nuclear energy will be a slow, expensive and uncertain challenge at best. To increase the potential of nuclear energy, India has to look into outside help. Foreign involvement in nuclear power plant construction will diminish India’s ambition of energy independence if India takes the path of nuclear.

The real solution to India’s energy needs can come only when opting for energy sources that have low-impacts on the environment, low costs, and are easily available. Renewable energy has the potential to fulfill these critera. Renewable energy has the potential to bring true energy independence to India.

About the Author: Avilash Roul has been writing, advocating, researching, and creating knowledge on Environment and Development in various English Daily media since 2000. He has worked with Down To Earth (fortnightly magazine published in New Delhi, India) for the last three years. He has also contributed a Sunday column in New India Express on the environment and development. Right now Mr. Roul is working as an Assistant Coordinator for the Bank Information Center (www.bicusa.org), an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organization that advocates for the protection of rights, participation, transparency, and public accountability in the governance and operations of the World Bank, regional development banks, and the International Monetary Fund.