You wouldn’t think so if you looked at the way mainstream media cherry-picked National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) recent “Arctic Report Card,” released on 10-17-2007.
From CBS News we get the headline “Rapid Changes In Arctic, Experts Warn,” with the lead stating:
“The Arctic is under increasing stress from warming temperatures as shrubs colonize the tundra.”
From the BBC we get “Warm wind hits Arctic climate,” with the lead stating
“The Arctic is being hit by melting ice, hotter air and dying wildlife.”
Yet if you actually read the report from NOAA, you get a much less alarming story:
“The first update of a report tracking the state of the Arctic indicates that some changes in that region are larger and occurring faster than those previously predicted by climate models, while other indicators show some stabilizing.”
“Not all indicators show extreme events, and some signals are mixed. For instance, North Pole ocean temperatures are returning to 1990s values, but currents are relatively warm around the edges of the Arctic Ocean.”
“Permafrost temperatures are stabilizing in both North America and Eurasia, but permafrost melt remains a serious problem. Shrubs are moving northward into tundra areas, but causes for treeline movements are difficult to assess because forest management practices are as influential as climate change.”
If you talk with atmospheric scientists, like we do, you will have to wonder why mainstream journalists don’t bother to mention the “Pacific Decadal Oscillation” (ref. Wikipedia) a 60-70 year cycle, well documented, that causes Arctic warming lasting for decades, followed by cooling.
Here are the dates applying to this cycle:
- 1905: After a strong swing, PDO changed to a “warm” phase.
- 1946: PDO changed to a “cool” phase.
- 1977: PDO changed to a “warm” phase.
- 1998: PDO index showed several years of “cool” values, but has not remained in that pattern.
Based on 20th century records, therefore, the shift to warming occurred in 1905 and again in 1977, a 72 year cycle. On that basis, the shift back to cooling would occur 72 years after the last cooling shift which was in 1946. So of course the 1998 index suggesting cooling had not yet occurred is misleading. The documented length of the PDO cycle indicates sustained cooling may not begin until 2018.
Unfortunately, by then in the name of curtailing global CO2 emissions, we may have nationalized our energy industry and gone to war with China. Under such a scenario, which is frighteningly possible if we are not permitted to continue the “debate,” by 2018 we will live in a world where the global north (developed nations) strangled the economies of the developing world in the name of anti-CO2 alarmism, and brought global CO2 emissions down to preindustrial levels. And in that world we will be told the hundreds of millions killed through the resulting wars and increased poverty, and the implementation of socialist tyranny from Brussels to Barstow was worth it – because the Arctic cooled again.
In reality the Arctic was cooling right on schedule, and we could have had peace and prosperity instead of socialism, tyranny, thought police, international tension, economic misery, neo-colonialism in the name of fighting CO2, and WWIII.
Think about it. Global warming alarm is a very, very dangerous trend, because it stifles debate, foments panic, and calls for drastic measures. Rational debate must be ongoing both as to the extent of this warming, the cause of this warming, and what the appropriate response should be, both politically and economically.